Economists assessed the consequences of the fuel crisis in Kuban.

The growth rates of gasoline prices in the Krasnodar region by the end of the year may exceed the national average, and the rise in fuel prices will affect the cost of goods and services in the fall, analysts believe.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", on August 26, residents of Sochi surveyed by the publication reported the first signs of stabilization of the gasoline situation compared to mid-month. However, as of August 25, AI-95 was unavailable at more than half of the gas stations in five major cities of the Krasnodar region.

According to the administration of Krasnodar, on the morning of August 30, 66 gas stations in the city were dispensing automotive fuel, while another 40 stations had suspended fuel sales. Diesel fuel was sold at 60 stations, AI-92 at 32, AI-95 at 31, and AI-100 at three, reported today by "BFM Kuban" citing the city administration's press service.

From June 3 to August 24, the average cost of gasoline in the Krasnodar region increased by 14% to 78.96 rubles per liter, calculated "RBC Kuban" based on Rosstat data. During this period, AI-92 rose by 14.5% to 74.77 rubles, AI-95 by 13.6% to 81.37 rubles, and AI-98 by 14% to 108.55 rubles. Diesel fuel increased by 7.8% to 80.85 rubles per liter, the publication reported on August 27.

The rise in fuel prices in the summer is associated with a reduction in production and fuel reserves, repairs at oil refineries, disruptions in usual logistics, and seasonal increases in demand from motorists and agriculture, explained analyst Freedom Global Vladimir Chernov.

According to him, southern Russia is particularly sensitive to disruptions due to a greater dependence on road transport for fuel, and additional summer demand is created by tourist flows and the harvest season, noted "RBC Kuban".

Chernov suggested that as supply stabilizes, the gap in price growth rates will begin to narrow, but by the end of the year, the rise in fuel prices in southern Russia will likely remain above the national average.

The head of the Southern Main Directorate of the Bank of Russia Evgeny Eberentz also linked the July increase in fuel prices to a temporary reduction in motor fuel production amid high seasonal demand. He warned that rising fuel prices create inflationary risks that may manifest in the fall, reported "Kommersant" on August 28.

"The key factor in the price increase was the temporary reduction in motor fuel production amid high seasonal demand. Additionally, summer traditionally marks the season for home canning, which means that sugar, whose stocks are already low by this time, is in demand. Accordingly, prices for sugar rise during this period," Eberentz said.

Inflation in the region was restrained by the price dynamics of seasonal products, primarily vegetables, which decreased in price by more than 5% in July compared to June, he continued. "For example, tomatoes and cucumbers continued to decrease in price due to the increase in the harvest of open-field crops (they fell in price by 19% and 5.6% respectively over the month). At the same time, core inflation excluding seasonality rose only by 0.63% in July, while in June the increase was 0.97%," noted the head of the Southern Main Directorate of the Bank of Russia.

Recall that on August 21, it became known about a gasoline shortage in Gelendzhik and Tuapse. At most gas stations in these cities, only diesel fuel was sold, and motorists continued to wait for new gasoline supplies. By that time, residents of Sochi also reported around-the-clock queues at gas stations and gasoline being sold privately for up to 200 rubles per liter.

By July 17, against the backdrop of rising fuel prices in Krasnodar, the number of gas stations dispensing fuel decreased. At least one type of fuel was available at 63 stations on that date, down from 70 three days earlier, with AI-95 sold at 40 stations. At some private gas stations, a liter of gasoline was sold for up to 189 rubles.