Analysts assess the European Union's statement of support for Armenia

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There will be no abrupt rupture in Armenia's economic relations with Russia. The European Commission President's announcement of a €50 million support package is a purely political gesture, but such gestures will continue in the future.

As reported by the "Caucasian Knot," Rosselkhoznadzor (Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance) imposed temporary restrictions on the import of flowers from Armenia starting May 22, 2026, and on fresh tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, herbs, and strawberries starting May 30. In addition, the import of all quantities of Armenian mineral water "Jermuk" and a number of cognacs and wines to Russia was stopped, and the import of fish from Armenia was significantly restricted. Starting from June 2, Rosselkhoznadzor extended the ban to fresh grapes and stone fruits, including cherries, and from June 3 - to potatoes, eggplants, as well as pome fruits and dried fruits. On June 4, the head of the European Commission announced that the EU was preparing a support package for Armenia, including over €50 million in emergency financial assistance. Options for supplying agricultural products to Europe would also be explored. The June 7 parliamentary elections in Armenia will effectively be a referendum on the future of Nikol Pashinyan's government and the country's foreign policy. At stake is the current team's retention of power or its transfer to the opposition, which promises to reconsider key decisions of recent years, according to the "Caucasian Knot" report "2026 Elections to the National Assembly (Parliament) of Armenia." Samvel Karapetyan's "Strong Armenia," along with Robert Kocharyan's "Armenia" bloc and Gagik Tsarukyan's "Prosperous Armenia" party, is one of the most pro-Russian parties in the Armenian parliamentary elections. The Kremlin is backing Karapetyan, but by law he cannot participate in the elections, Armenian political scientists previously noted.

Political scientist Sergei Boyko*, research fellow at the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies Alexander Karavaev, and Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Professor and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexei Gunya commented on Russia's imposition of trade restrictions on Armenia and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's announcement of an aid package for the country to a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent on June 5.

There will be no abrupt severance of ties between Armenia and Russia, believes Sergey Boyko*.

"Ultimately, the curtailment of cooperation, if it does occur, will be gradual. And Russia will gain nothing from the proposal to hold a referendum." "This is simply an attempt to impose their agenda," he believes.

The main thing is that Armenia will cease to be a transit hub for supplies from the EU to Russia, which the Russian economy, including the defense industry, is interested in.

According to the political scientist, trade turnover between Armenia and Russia will indeed reach $14 billion by the end of 2025, which, by some estimates, accounts for 25% of the country's current GDP. "However, the dependence here is mutual, as the loss of supplies of agricultural products, spirits, and other Armenian goods from Armenia will also impact Russia. Most importantly, Armenia will cease to be a transit hub for supplies from the EU to Russia, which the Russian economy, including the defense industry, is interested in," Boyko explained*.

In his opinion, all current actions by Russian officials are a belated attempt to retain a "vassal" state. "Moscow is having a hard time accepting the fact that it has lost Armenia after Russian authorities left it alone in the standoff with Azerbaijan. But when the current attempt to "harshly restrain" Armenia fails due to its lack of preparation and clumsiness, official Moscow will again soften its stance toward Yerevan," Boyko* concluded.

50 million is about half of Armenia's monthly agricultural exports to Russia, noted Alexander Karavaev.

"This is a purely political gesture, calculated for immediate short-term effects," he believes.

Armenia currently does not enjoy preferential trade with the EU.

According to the researcher, it is technically possible to reorient a portion, say a quarter or a fifth, of Armenia's agricultural exports to EU countries in the medium term, but it is unknown how long this will take. "Logistics issues need to be resolved." This includes transporting perishable goods, leasing warehouses from Turkey to Central Europe, and negotiations with major European retail chains like Auchan, Lidl, and so on. The most important thing they need to do is resume negotiations on a free trade area with the European Union, which were suspended in early 2012. "Armenia currently does not enjoy preferential trade with the EU," Karavaev explained.

However, according to Karavaev, the current measures by Rosselkhoznadzor are temporary. "Armenian exports to Russia will quickly recover once a decision is made to lift the bans," Karavaev believes.

As for the referendum, this issue is more complex, since, according to the interlocutor, it depends on Pashinyan's response. "After all, Moscow was not the source of the escalation; rather, it is seeking options for responding to this path-finding crisis." It's multilayered, and at its core is a conflict between the EU and Russia. The European Commission's reluctance to engage in dialogue on the interaction of free trade zones, which is clearly impossible at the current stage. The paradox of the situation is that Pashinyan is also not opposed to a referendum. But later, when Armenia's progress toward the EU becomes more profound," Karavaev explained.

Russia simply cannot remain silent, as this would erode some of the EAEU's political and economic value.

Therefore, he believes, if Pashinyan does not wish to tighten the noose of this confrontation, it would be better to impose a moratorium on this issue. "Defining a roadmap for interaction with the EAEU and acceptable parameters for interaction with the EU that do not conflict with the current trade and interaction regime within the EAEU would be the optimal solution. For now, from the EAEU's perspective, the plan is to develop a response plan by December, possibly including a model for withdrawal from the organization. A referendum could become a practical mechanism. Russia simply cannot remain silent, as this would erode some of the EAEU's political and economic value. The structure and common space have proven their advantages. So, following Pashinyan's logic, it turns out that we are with you, with the EAEU, but temporarily, until Armenia joins the EU. That is, for this temporary period of an unknown number of years, the EAEU must support Armenia and coordinate its policies with Yerevan," Karavaev noted. Russia's introduction of restrictions is a signal for the future, believes Alexey Gunya.

"It's an indication of what could happen if Armenia changes course toward the EU," he said. The professor believes that demonstrations of support for Pashinyan from the EU will not be decisive. "I think most voters have already made up their minds, one way or another, about who they'll support. And this EU demonstration is unlikely to achieve any significant change here," Gunya emphasized.

This small country can live on these bonuses for a long time.

In his opinion, if Armenia reorientates itself toward the EU and curtails its position in the Eurasian Union, the consequences could be much more profound. "This doesn't just apply to agricultural products, because although Armenia has agricultural products as its main export commodity, so to speak, its importance is nevertheless more geopolitical. And I think that in the event of a truly serious reorientation toward the EU, Armenia will receive many other unexpected bonuses. But there will also be downsides, of course, with the opening of borders with Turkey and the possibility of receiving European grants, which will be distributed to various other sectors, not just agriculture, and perhaps some strategic projects. This small country can live on these bonuses for a long time," Gunya explained. According to him, Russia is already demanding an answer to how Armenia sees its future—with the Eurasian Union or the European Union. "Since many projects financed by Russia have been initiated, ongoing, and planned, primarily in infrastructure, as well as various other projects in the fields of, say, mining, electricity, and so on, these long-term projects require the earliest possible correction," Gunya pointed out.

* added to the Ministry of Justice's register of foreign agents.

** Meta (owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp) is banned in Russia.