Analysts expressed polar opinions on the results of monitoring the Black Sea's oil pollution

Some analysts have accepted the veracity of the results of monitoring the Black Sea's oil pollution, which showed that the level this summer, despite the accident of two tankers, was one of the lowest in 18 years of observations. Others have questioned the scientists' conclusions.

As reported by the " Caucasian Knot ," in late October, scientists from the Southern Federal University published data from long-term observations of oil pollution in the areas of tanker wrecks in 2007 and 2024. Between 2007 and 2025, the scientists collected 275 seawater samples and 190 samples of oil clots and films from the coast of the Kerch Strait, Anapa, and Novorossiysk districts, according to a publication on the university's website. High hydrocarbon concentrations, several times exceeding the maximum permissible concentration, were recorded in the areas of the emergency fuel oil spills in the first weeks after the shipwrecks, that is, in December 2007 and January 2025, as well as during the two to three warm seasons following the 2007 disaster. However, after the 2024 disaster, a summer surge in pollution in 2025 was not recorded; on the contrary, “one of the lowest pollution levels in all 18 years of observations” was noted.

A study by scientists from the Southern Federal University, which concluded after years of monitoring that the Black Sea waters in the summer of 2025 were at one of the lowest levels of oil pollution in 18 years of observations, was commented on by ecologist Igor Shkradyuk, founder and head of the "Dolphins" volunteer headquarters Alexander Kirpa, head of the Adygea branch of the All-Russian Society for Nature Conservation Valery Brinikh, and an anonymous ecologist to a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent on December 7.

The titanic work of volunteers, visitors and local residents who collected hundreds of tons of fuel oil from the sand surface last December and have been digging fuel oil out of the sand for 11 months this year has saved the sea and the coast.

Igor Shkradyuk agrees with SFedU's findings. "Southern Federal University has been collecting water and oil product samples from the shore monthly for 18 years. The scientists clearly described their research methods. Although two tankers broke up on December 15, 2024, and one on November 11, 2007, the water was cleaner by the summer of 2025. SFedU scientists directly attribute this to the large-scale cleanup efforts. It was the work of thousands of volunteers and hundreds of EMERCOM divers that mitigated the consequences of the disaster. I was a volunteer, sifting sand and conducting surveys to assess the amount of fuel oil in the sand. Fuel oil was buried by sand on the shore of the Kerch Strait in both 2007 and 2014. Fuel oil was even dug out of the sand from a depth of one meter. I repeat, it was the titanic work of volunteers, visitors, and local residents who collected hundreds of tons of fuel oil from the sand surface last December and who have been digging fuel oil out of the sand for 11 months this year that saved the sea and the coast. However, hundreds, perhaps a thousand tons, of fuel oil remain in the sand on the shore and on the seabed. And waves periodically uncover this fuel oil. The impact of oil products in the water on wildlife continues. In just two days, November 29-30, volunteers cleaning the shore on their days off discovered 17 carcasses of baby dolphins. So the impact of the disaster will certainly linger for another two to three years. Winter storms, which could rock the wreckage of fuel oil tankers lying on the bottom of the Kerch Strait, are particularly worrisome," he stated.

We consider the SFedU estimates of the risk of secondary pollution over a two- to three-year horizon to be realistic.

Alexander Kirpa also expressed confidence in the results of the SFedU study. "We respect and trust the SFedU study. This is a serious scientific team working within the established monitoring methods, and the very fact that in the summer of 2025, the concentrations of oil products in the water, as measured, were low is good news for both the sea and for all of us. It's important to understand, however, that scientists primarily measure the water's condition at specific points and periods. Our area of ​​responsibility is the coastal strip and the actual state of the shoreline. We see every day that fuel oil and contaminated sand continue to surface in the soil and in the upper layers of the beach, especially after storms. We consider the SFedU assessments of the risk of secondary contamination over a two- to three-year horizon to be realistic. Fuel oil accumulated in the soil doesn't disappear on its own; it can be "exposed" by waves, currents, and offshore activities. “In fact, our work as a volunteer headquarters is aimed precisely at minimizing this risk: removing as much fuel oil as possible from the coastal zone and preventing it from returning to the sea,” he said.

I'm not sure that the level of water pollution in the Black Sea is the lowest it's been in many years.

Valery Brinikh expressed doubt about the results of the SFedU study. "Based on what happened at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, I'm not sure that the water pollution level in the Black World is the lowest it's been in many years. At least, I don't see any such differences. I trust the volunteers more in this case than the officials—they have no reason to hide anything. In general, I believe the announcements about opening the season were premature, since the entire water area has been cleaned, especially since fuel oil will still float to the surface as the water warms, and the second of the sunken tankers wasn't even touched," he noted.

We don't know the sampling points.

An anonymous ecologist also questioned the results obtained by the SFedU scientists. "We don't know the sampling locations. There are areas in the Black Sea with deep-water springs, which purifies the water there more quickly, such as Utrish and, paradoxically, Tsemes Bay. Therefore, samples taken in such areas provide a distorted picture," he noted.

He also stated that repeated coastal contamination is more than likely. "Storms are already washing fuel oil ashore that hasn't decomposed at all. And next year, the same thing will likely happen," he concluded.

As a reminder, on December 15, 2024, two tankers carrying fuel oil sank in the Kerch Strait. A crew member from one of the tankers died as a result. Furthermore, an oil spill occurred, leading to catastrophic environmental consequences, according to the "Caucasian Knot" report " Fuel Oil Spill in the Kerch Strait ."

Materials on the consequences of the fuel oil spill have been collected by the "Caucasian Knot" on the page " Eco-disaster in Kuban ."

The "Caucasian Knot" also reported that on December 2, following a coastal inspection by environmental activists from "Net, Sieve, Shovel," 17 dead dolphins were found in the area between the village of Artyushchenko in the Temryuk district and the Anapa village of Dzhemete.