Experts predict no strengthening of IS in Northern Caucasus because of Turkish-Russian conflict

The crisis in the relations between Russia and Turkey will not affect the situation in Northern Caucasus. This opinion was expressed by participants of the "roundtable" held at the Carnegie Moscow Centre. Meanwhile, the experts do not exclude that the crisis may affect the issues concerning Armenia.

On December 23, the Carnegie Moscow Centre hosted the "roundtable" on the theme "Prospects of Russian-Turkish relations: what is the price of the crisis?"

According to Pavel Shlykov, Assistant professor of history at the Institute of Asian and African Studies (IAAS) of the Moscow State University (MSU), in the 1990s, Turkey used to be an active player in the Caucasus region.

"Then, the disappointment came, and now, according to the dominant concept, the major attention is focused on other regions. Furthermore, Turkey's got less and less resources. Therefore, the country has got no excessive funds to operate in the region," Pavel Shlykov has stated.

Alexei Malashenko, a member of the Scientific Council of the Moscow Carnegie Centre, also believes that Turkey has neither resources nor interntions to interfere in the affairs in Northern Caucasus.

According to Kerim Khas, an expert on Eurasian policy of the Ankara analytical centre "International Strategic Research Organization" (USAK), the deterioration of the relations between Russia and Turkey may affect the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.

"Prior to this incident, we had a hope that the problem could be resolved by diplomatic means. However, today, it is not on the agenda, and we can talk further. The same applies to the problem of the Armenian Genocide. As a result, all these problems are frozen for an indefinite period," Kerim Khas has emphasized.

The experts have also ruled out the chance for the "Islamic State" (IS), recognized in Russia as a terrorist organization, to use the conflict between Russia and Turkey to strengthen its position in the Caucasus.

In particular, Pavel Shlykov has noted that Turkey itself is afraid of the IS, and therefore, the country will do nothing for its strengthening.

Full text of the article is available on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’.