Armenian analysts doubt the quick opening of the border with Turkey.

Statements by the Armenian authorities about activating dialogue with Ankara do not guarantee the quick opening of the border: much depends on Azerbaijan's position, which links the normalization of relations to the signing of a peace treaty, experts surveyed by "Caucasian Knot" in Yerevan indicated.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", on October 6, Pashinyan stated that the opening of the border with Turkey and railway communication with Azerbaijan is expected in the near future. The prospects for normalizing relations between Armenia and Turkey primarily depend on the political conditions of Ankara and Baku, while economic benefits for Yerevan are not guaranteed, political scientists noted in a survey by "Caucasian Knot".

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated again to journalists on October 22 that "Armenia continues to work with Azerbaijan and Turkey to open the Armenian-Turkish border." At the same time, he noted that "Azerbaijan has certain reservations on this issue." Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan reported on October 16 that the dialogue between Yerevan and Ankara has intensified and progressed in discussing economic and trade issues, so a decision on opening the border could be announced "at any moment."

Political analyst Naira Ayrumyan noted that Azerbaijan and Turkey "still do not open the borders," although statements are made that they need transport routes through Armenia. Why Ankara and Baku do not proceed with the opening of borders is the main question, in her opinion, regarding the unblocking of communications in the South Caucasus and the implementation of the project TRIPP, which the parties agreed upon in August 2025 in Washington.

"Armenia has repeatedly stated its readiness to open communications, however, Turkey and Azerbaijan link this process to political conditions. One of Baku's key demands is the signing of a peace treaty, which it ties to changes in Armenia's Constitution," Ayrumyan said.

She pointed out that this raises questions about the legal basis of the territorial positions of the parties. The Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991, mentioned in the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, initialed on August 8, 2025, is considered the basis for recognizing the territorial integrity of former Soviet republics. The historical formation of the region's borders, the expert added, is linked to the Moscow and Kars treaties of 1921, and their significance for modern issues requires separate legal analysis.

It is especially important, according to Ayrumyan, "that the implementation of TRIPP and other transport projects is not accompanied by restrictions on Armenia's sovereignty." "All communications through the Syunik region must operate under Armenian jurisdiction, maintaining border and customs control and the right of the country to ensure its own security," she emphasized.

The opening of borders, in her assessment, could bring economic benefits to Armenia, expand trade, and reduce transport isolation, but risks must also be considered, particularly the consequences for relations with Iran and Georgia. "The unblocking of the region must be mutual, not providing unilateral advantages to Azerbaijan and Turkey. It is important not only when the borders will open but also under what conditions this will happen. Without guarantees of sovereignty, equality, and adherence to international law, transport projects could become a tool of political pressure on Armenia rather than a basis for regional cooperation," Ayrumyan noted.

Ankara's Position and Preparation for Opening Borders

International relations expert David Karapetyan believes that the situation may be approaching the opening of borders, but optimistic statements from Armenian officials have not yet been confirmed by agreements with Ankara. "For a final decision, not only the results of bilateral negotiations are important but also Azerbaijan's position, as well as the geopolitical interests of the region," he said.

According to him, public statements, high-level contacts, and information about technical preparations allow for talking about practical preparatory work. "However, this does not yet prove that Ankara and Yerevan have agreed on the date of the border opening and the conditions for crossing it," Karapetyan noted.

Turkey, in his opinion, links the normalization of relations with Armenia to the development of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. "Ankara is interested in expanding trade and transport communications in the South Caucasus while simultaneously seeking to maintain strategic interaction with Azerbaijan," the expert believes. The interests of Russia, Georgia, Iran, the European Union, and other players also influence regional processes, he added.

Karapetyan does not rule out a phased opening of the border and links this process to the implementation of TRIPP. "To assess the real prospects for opening the border, it is necessary to monitor further steps from Ankara and wait for official confirmations from Turkey, not limiting ourselves to the optimistic statements of Armenian authorities," he believes.

“TRIPP does not guarantee the opening of the border”

Expert from the analytical center "APRI Armenia" Benjamin Poghosyan also believes that the opening of the border remains in question, despite the activation of contacts.

"Representatives of Turkish energy companies regularly come to Armenia, however, even minimal steps towards normalizing relations, particularly the opening of the border for citizens of third countries and those with diplomatic passports, have not yet been implemented," he said.

One of the main reasons, according to him, is Azerbaijan's position, which links the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations to the signing of a peace treaty with Armenia.

The launch of TRIPP itself does not guarantee the opening of the border, Poghosyan believes. The development of transport communications through Syunik is possible, but a separate political decision from Ankara and specific agreements with Yerevan are needed for the opening of the border, he explained.