The dissatisfaction of Astrakhan residents with social issues has not taken on a noticeable political expression.

The fuel crisis and housing and utilities problems have become noticeable reasons for the dissatisfaction of residents of the Astrakhan region, but the protest potential is unlikely to manifest in the elections, as the CPRF has failed to consolidate voters around itself, and the influence of "Fair Russia" has weakened after Oleg Shein's departure*, noted analysts interviewed by "Caucasian Knot".

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", from September 18 to 20, elections for deputies of the State Duma of the IX convocation and the Duma of the Astrakhan region of the VIII convocation will take place.

There is currently no noticeable protest potential in the Astrakhan region, indicated political scientist Mikhail Doliev*. Residents' dissatisfaction with certain socio-economic issues remains, but it does not turn into organized political protest, he noted.

"Currently, the most noticeable topic is the situation with gasoline and queues at gas stations. However, even about this, people have started to speak much more cautiously on social networks," Doliev* told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".

The main reason for social dissatisfaction he named is the problems with the availability of gasoline. Other socio-economic issues also remain relevant, but it is the fuel crisis that is most noticeable in the public space, explained the political scientist.

Dissatisfaction among residents is unlikely to significantly change the electoral situation, believes Doliev*. The CPRF has a traditional electorate in the Astrakhan region that perceives the party as a systemic alternative to "United Russia", but there is currently no noticeable political mobilization around the communists, he pointed out.

"I would not confidently predict an increase in the CPRF's results. Its traditional electorate exists in the Astrakhan region, but significant increases in results require political mobilization, which I do not currently observe. <...> It is difficult to say how this potential will be realized in votes," said the analyst.

The simultaneous conduct of federal and regional campaigns is unlikely to significantly affect voter turnout, he believes. According to his assessment, administrative methods of mobilization, including organized participation of budget sector employees, have a much stronger impact on residents' participation in elections.

The pre-election campaign in the Astrakhan region Doliev* described as practically invisible. According to him, he did not see active debates, numerous meetings with voters, or other noticeable public manifestations of the campaign.

"There is an impression of complete sterility of the campaign. It is taking place without noticeable political competition and is practically absent in the public space," said the political scientist.

The political scientist pointed to the accumulation of dissatisfaction among residents.

There is a protest potential in the Astrakhan region that exists and is growing against the backdrop of economic, social, and communal problems, noted political scientist Denis Leven. Among the main reasons for dissatisfaction, he named the state of housing and utilities, rising tariffs, and the fuel crisis.

"Dissatisfaction is accumulating, but the issues are quite standard for neighboring regions," he told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".

The CPRF does not have a monopoly on alternative or protest voting in the Astrakhan region, Leven continued. According to his assessment, the positions of "Fair Russia" have traditionally been strong in the region, which were long associated with the activities of Oleg Shein*.

There are grounds for maintaining voting for alternative parties, but it should not be expected that dissatisfied voters will consolidate exclusively around the CPRF, believes Leven. The possible strengthening of the communists, in his assessment, will be limited by competition with other parties.

A university teacher spoke about pressure on budget employees.

Employees of budget organizations face informal pressure from relevant agencies, stated a teacher from one of the Astrakhan universities.

"Many received verbal orders on who to vote for and that they needed to bring relatives or acquaintances to polling stations on a specific day and hour. The management stated that it would strictly control the execution of the order and those who do not comply will face punishment, up to dismissal," he told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot" on condition of anonymity.

The influence of systemic opposition parties on dissatisfied residents remains weak, believes the interlocutor. After Oleg Shein's* departure from Russia, "Fair Russia" lost a significant part of its previous influence in the region, and the CPRF and LDPR are also unable to become centers of protest activity, he believes.

The most irritating issues for residents during the election campaign, the university teacher named the fuel crisis, the state of housing and utilities, and the large number of emergency housing in Astrakhan. If the current pace of resettlement continues, the solution to the problem of emergency housing will stretch for years, he believes.

"There will be no civil protest during and after the elections in the Astrakhan region. People are intimidated," said the teacher.

* included by the Ministry of Justice of Russia in the register of foreign agents.

** the activities of the company Meta (owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp) are banned in Russia.