Analysts called the elections for the head of North Ossetia a simulation.

The upcoming elections for the head of North Ossetia will merely formalize a new term for Sergey Menyaylo: the parliament, controlled by the authorities, will approve the current head without resistance, while his opponents will only simulate competition, experts surveyed by "Caucasian Knot" believe.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", at the end of August, Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted three candidates for the post of head of North Ossetia. The candidates are the current head of the region Sergey Menyaylo, the deputy general director of LLC "Selengeugol" Oleg Varnavin, and the deputy of the republican parliament, director of the North Ossetian State Academic Theater named after V. Tkhapseyev Chermen Dudati. The head of North Ossetia will be elected by the deputies of the republic's parliament on September 20.

The procedure for electing the head of North Ossetia does not imply real competition; deputies will deliberately support the candidacy of Sergey Menyaylo, believes Valery Dzutsati, an associate professor of political science at Augusta University (USA). Neither Varnavin nor Dudati are considered real alternatives to the current head by the political scientist.

"This is not an election, but an appointment disguised as an election. The theater director is under the care of the head of the republic; they all depend on him, and the head depends on Moscow. Many in the republic understand that nothing depends on them, including the parliamentarians: they will vote as they are told, and they will be told to vote for Menyaylo. Everything will go as expected in Moscow," Dzutsati told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot."

He noted that the most significant question is why in most republics of the North Caucasus, residents are deprived of the opportunity to directly elect regional leaders. "They want to create the appearance that elections exist, but in reality, they do not. In all republics of the North Caucasus, except Chechnya, heads are elected by parliaments. In direct elections, candidates are also selected from above, but still, general elections take place. In the Caucasus, heads are de facto appointed, and this is rarely discussed," the political scientist noted.

Indirect elections as an element of discrimination against national regions

Indirect elections of heads have remained not only in the North Caucasus, but Dzutsati pointed out that a significant part of such subjects consists of national-territorial entities.

"My theory is that the federal center considers such regions less predictable in direct voting. In the North Caucasus, the republics are small, a lot of information is transmitted at the grassroots level, from person to person, without the mediation of television or newspapers. It seems to me that Moscow is not confident that it can control the results of direct voting here as it can in most other regions of Russia, so it prefers a system of complete control," he said.

According to Dzutsati, the use of an indirect election model in national-territorial subjects allows for a discussion of the unequal approach of the federal center.

"In direct voting, Moscow cannot fully guarantee that the person it wants will be elected; people may choose another candidate. Therefore, I consider such a system to be a form of discrimination based on nationality," he stated.

In all republics of the North Caucasus, except Chechnya, heads are elected by regional parliaments. The indirect election procedure also operates in several other subjects of Russia, including the Nenets, Khanty-Mansi, and Yamalo-Nenets autonomous okrugs.

In such a system, a change of leadership will not lead to significant changes in the policy of the republican authorities, Dzutsati believes.

"There is no talk of voting here. I am not even mentioning how the parliament of North Ossetia itself is elected - it is a simulacrum; there are no elections. When a territory is managed by a person who is not connected to the population, it reduces the quality of governance, as global experience shows. Elections are not held for the sake of the process itself, but to ensure better service, governance, and order. If the authorities do not have the support of the population and are not dependent on it, they govern ineffectively, which also reduces the quality of services, including utilities. At some point, all this begins to fall apart. Such a system gives nothing to either the region or Moscow," the political scientist believes.

Speaking about the results of five years of Menyaylo's work, Dzutsati linked the prospect of his re-election primarily with the fulfillment of tasks set by the federal center for regional leaders. The main criterion today, he says, is the indicator of sending people to the combat zone. At the same time, Dzutsati allowed that under Menyaylo, federal funding for North Ossetia may have increased, but emphasized that he does not have data to confirm this.

"These are closed data, but the logic may be as follows: we appoint you a governor, you accept him, and we will give you more money. There is such a nationalist logic here. At the same time, I do not see serious progress for the development of the region's economy. North Ossetia is increasingly becoming a kind of dacha region for wealthy Muscovites. There are not many southern regions in Russia; the climate here is relatively mild compared to Moscow and St. Petersburg. If the state creates conditions, infrastructure, and builds houses, someone will come here and buy real estate," he explained.

The main internal problem of North Ossetia, Dzutsati named the gap between the authorities and the population. The situation in the republic is also affected by the consequences of military actions, which create problems for other regions.

"In Ossetia, there are the same queues for gasoline as in other regions of Russia, but the main internal problem is the gap between the authorities and the population. It is not unique, but in national regions, in my opinion, it is expressed more strongly," the political scientist noted.

This gap, Dzutsati links both to the absence of direct elections for the head and to the mechanism of forming the republican parliament.

"The head of the region is not elected in direct elections; the elections of deputies are effectively falsified; people go through party lists with mechanisms of formation that are unclear to the population. The authorities exist independently, according to a model of a monarchical state, with a veneer of elections that mean nothing. Candidates from the people cannot be elected, but the claim to the election of power is maintained. One does not need to be a genius to understand that such a gap can ultimately end in a serious rebellion," he believes.

Complaints from residents of Vladikavkaz about communal problems, such as the smell from the landfill, Dzutsati called one of the manifestations of the overall problem of governance quality. "Even if Menyaylo were a golden person, he needs to rely on a team, and there is none. I think Moscow would not want him to have his own strong team because then he would become more independent. Moscow needs a leader who is completely dependent on the federal center. If there is no connection with the population, what can the quality of governance be? In such a system, even communal services will be worse," said the political scientist.

The presence of a political team does not automatically guarantee effective governance, but it creates a mechanism for accountability of the authorities to the population.

"In a normal modern country, a leader comes to power with his team. Of course, this does not automatically eliminate corruption and other problems, but today's system is unviable in the long term," Dzutsati believes.

From the voting on September 20, the political scientist expects an even more predictable result than during Menyaylo's election in 2021, when he was supported by all participating deputies.

"I do not even expect a performance. In 2021, people could still somehow express themselves, but now there is a strong factor of fear. Even those who are dissatisfied and could vote against will be afraid to do so under the current conditions. I think they will vote unanimously," he said.

Menyaylo's opponents are technical candidates

There is no real choice between the three candidates presented by the president for the post of head of North Ossetia, and Varnavin and Dudati play the role of technical candidates, believes political journalist Ruslan Totrov*.

"There is no choice at all. Let's not even for a second assume that Varnavin or Dudati are at all competitive candidates. These are two absolutely technical figures, regardless of their personalities, because any mid-level official from Ossetia could have been in their place. I think they deliberately chose an Ossetian and a Russian to show the friendship of peoples, a complete Ossetian international. Such coincidences do not happen. Therefore, discussing the strengths or weaknesses of either is completely pointless: they have nothing to do with real competitive struggle," Totrov* told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot."

The possibility that deputies might prefer one of the two candidates to Menyaylo is excluded by Totrov. "Considering Varnavin or Dudati as a possible alternative to Sergey Menyaylo, we would simply be being disingenuous. There is no sense or possibility to even hypothetically assume that one of them would suddenly win the sympathies of the completely controlled Ossetian parliament. Let's not be disingenuous," the journalist emphasized.

Even the election of one of the two alternative candidates would not lead, in his opinion, to significant changes in the policy of the republican authorities.

"If we were to assume that the unimaginable happened, the sun fell into the Danube, and suddenly Ossetian parliamentarians, overheated, voted for Varnavin or Dudati, I would reassure the public: there would be no change in Menyaylo's policy. At least because the head of North Ossetia is not an elected but an appointed position. The only one this person is accountable to is the federal center, and in no way to the people of North Ossetia. Therefore, the policy will be exactly the same as that required by the federal center," Totrov* explained.

Totrov evaluates Menyaylo's five years in charge of North Ossetia primarily through his role in mobilizing the residents of the republic to participate in military actions against Ukraine.

"This person is one of the agitators and recruiters for the armed forces. Thousands and thousands of Ossetians who went to the front were pushed there, including thanks to, in quotes, the efforts of Mr. Menyaylo," he stated.

At the same time, Totrov considers the main motive for the participation of residents in military actions to be the material factor. "It is clear that the financial component plays a major role. The overwhelming majority of residents of North Ossetia who went to the front are people from very poor strata of the population. For them, the money paid there is colossal," said the journalist.

He also considers Menyaylo's role in promoting the recruitment of combatants to be decisive and links it to the fulfillment of the federal center's requirements. "Menyaylo diligently followed the instructions of the federal center and increasingly promoted the idea of recruitment. This role is decisive, and it is catastrophic for Ossetia in the near and long-term perspective. That is why I do not consider it possible to talk about any of his other economic activities," Totrov* emphasized.

In the voting on September 20, Totrov expects a repeat of the 2021 scenario, when parliament deputies unanimously supported Menyaylo. He practically rules out the possibility of any votes against or abstentions. In his opinion, deputies from the Communist Party will also support Menyaylo, despite the presence of a candidate from the communists, Chermen Dudati, in the presidential trio.

The journalist considers the very system of electing the head of the republic by the parliament from the candidates presented by the president of Russia to be non-competitive and non-independent. He links its current state to the cancellation of direct elections for regional heads after the terrorist attack in Beslan.

"This system completely discredited itself back when Vladimir Putin canceled direct elections, taking advantage of the terrorist attack in Beslan. It is non-competitive, it is non-independent, it is corrupt, that is the main thing. It can only change with a change of political regime in Russia," he stated.

The regional branch of the "New People" party declined to comment to "Caucasian Knot." The editorial office also sent inquiries to the North Ossetian branches of the Communist Party, "Fair Russia," and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, asking whether the parties participated in the nomination of candidates for the post of head of the republic, which of the trio presented by the president they intend to support, and whether they consider the current system of electing the head to be competitive.

North Ossetia was at the forefront of the cancellation of elections twice

The refusal of direct elections for regional heads in Russia first occurred after the terrorist attack in Beslan. On September 13, 2004, Vladimir Putin proposed to change the procedure for forming regional authorities: instead of nationwide voting, the leaders of the subjects were to be empowered by regional parliaments at the proposal of the president of Russia. Putin explained the reform as a necessity to strengthen the unity of the country and the system of executive power in the context of terrorist threats. In December 2004, the corresponding law was adopted.

Direct elections for regional heads were restored almost eight years later: in May 2012, President Dmitry Medvedev signed the corresponding law, which came into force on June 1. The first direct elections of regional leaders after a seven-year break took place on October 14, 2012, but just a few months later, the initiative to create the possibility for a new direct election formally came from North Ossetia, which was then led by Taimuraz Mamsurov.

On December 13, 2012, the chairman of the parliament of the republic, Alexey Machnev, at a meeting of the Council of Legislators in the Kremlin, proposed to Vladimir Putin to allow regions to elect heads through legislative assemblies instead of nationwide voting. Machnev stated that direct elections could lead to a rise in public and political tensions, worsen the socio-economic situation, incite interethnic strife, and create security threats. He proposed a scheme in which parliamentary parties present candidates to the president of Russia, who selects several of them, and the regional parliament makes the final choice.

In the subsequent discussion, the necessity of a special procedure, primarily for the republics of the North Caucasus, was explained by the complex ethnic composition, competition among local elites, and the risk that the struggle among candidates could escalate into interethnic confrontation. One of the examples cited was Karachay-Cherkessia, where the presidential elections in 1999 were accompanied by a sharp political and interethnic crisis. At the same time, Caucasus expert Sergey Markedonov pointed out that the Kremlin's calculation to stabilize the North Caucasus through the cancellation of direct elections after 2004 was not confirmed by practice.

In April 2013, Putin signed a law allowing subjects to refuse the recently restored direct elections. Under this procedure, parties represented in the State Duma or regional parliament propose their candidates to the president of Russia, after which the president presents three candidates to the legislative assembly, which elects the head of the region.

The first to take advantage of the new possibility was Dagestan. On April 18, 2013, the People's Assembly of the republic voted to refuse direct elections for the head. Following that, Ingushetia switched to the parliamentary model. North Ossetia, from which the proposal to change the system initially came, decided to refuse direct elections in the fall of 2013, still under Taimuraz Mamsurov. Subsequently, the indirect model was also adopted by Adygea, Kabardino-Balkaria, and Karachay-Cherkessia. Chechnya remained an exception among the North Caucasus republics, retaining direct elections for its head.

* included in the register of foreign agents.

** the activities of the Meta company (owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp) are banned in Russia.