Armenia's opposition announced a lawsuit amid discussion of mass protests.

The "Strong Armenia" bloc is preparing a lawsuit to the Constitutional Court to invalidate the election results. Political analysts have questioned the opposition's ability to organize mass protests.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot," the Civil Contract party won 61 seats in parliament, the "Strong Armenia" bloc won 28 seats, and the "Armenia" bloc won 12 seats, according to the Central Election Commission of Armenia. Taking into account the mandates of national minorities, the Civil Contract party has 64 mandates, while Karapetyan's bloc has 29. Six opposition parties declared the elections illegitimate and blamed Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for further escalation of the situation.

On June 14, the Central Election Commission of Armenia summarized the election results. The main intrigue was the question of whether oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan's Prosperous Armenia party would win. According to the approved results, the Civil Contract party received 49.7456% of the vote, the Strong Armenia bloc received 23.2710%, the Armenia bloc received 9.9231%, and Prosperous Armenia received 3.893% of the vote, failing to clear the 4% threshold. The opposition, in particular, questioned the election results, promising to appeal to the Constitutional Court.

Aram Vardevanyan, a representative of the Strong Armenia bloc, said that their political team is preparing to file a lawsuit with the Constitutional Court. "You know, when the country's six key political forces officially declare that the election results do not reflect the true will of the people and cannot serve as the basis for forming a legitimate government, this means we are already in a state of profound political crisis. We will use all legitimate legal instruments to prove the systemic nature of the falsifications, administrative pressure, and political persecution by the regime. But we understand perfectly well that the legal process does not exist in a vacuum," he told the Caucasian Knot.

According to him, the issue of street protests has not yet been resolved. "Our joint statement clearly states that our future decisions and actions will be based solely on these realities. This means that the opposition is considering absolutely all proportionate political instruments provided for by the Constitution. We will definitely announce our decisions." "But the current regime already bears full responsibility for any possible escalation," he emphasized.

Prosperous Armenia Party candidate Iveta Tonoyan also left the question of protests open. "Currently, ongoing consultations and discussions on further steps are underway among the six parties that signed the statement. We are coordinating our actions both legally and in terms of political strategy," she said. According to her, the Central Election Commission's decision "cannot remain unanswered by citizens who voted for the opposition."

Electoral systems expert Tigran Mgnetsyan explained under what circumstances the Constitutional Court of Armenia can invalidate election results. "The opposition has five days to do so. From a legal perspective, the demand to invalidate election results can be satisfied by the Constitutional Court only if the key condition is met: the proven violations must be systemic and directly impact the final election results. The Electoral Code clearly distinguishes between localized errors and global falsifications. If violations are recorded only in individual polling stations, the court will order a rerun of the vote there, but will not overturn the results nationwide," Mgnetsyan told a Caucasian Knot correspondent.

To annul the election entirely, the bloc's lawyers must present the court with irrefutable facts, not just political statements. "We're talking about facts proving that the scale of the violations, whether through vote-buying or administrative leverage, has fundamentally altered the balance of power in parliament. The demand will be satisfied only if, without these violations, the composition of the parties that entered parliament or the distribution of mandates, including the ruling majority, would have looked fundamentally different," the expert noted.

Political scientists doubt the opposition's ability to organize mass protests

Political scientist Hovsep Khurshudyan believes that the opposition is incapable of organizing mass protests to overturn the election results, as the country completely lacks real protest potential.

"The opposition forces that entered parliament understand perfectly well that if new elections were called, they simply would not be able to re-mobilize such resources, distribute the same amount of pre-election bribes, and bring such a large number of people to Armenia. The noise they are raising in the media is not supported by adequate evidence of systematic falsifications," he said.

According to the political scientist, influencing a voter's vote inside the voting booth is technically impossible with the current mechanism. "In Armenia, voters don't check boxes; they confidentially seal one of many ballots in an envelope, so no one can verify which party they ultimately voted for. Thanks to improved mechanisms, old schemes of total fraud, such as carousel voting or openly stuffing bundles of ballots in front of the commission, are a thing of the past," he noted.

Political analyst Gor Abrahamyan also doubts the opposition's ability to organize mass protests. "If the opposition had real street potential, they would have brought people out to the squares immediately on election night. However, this didn't happen, and the prolonged pause only dampens the expectations of their radical supporters. "The main reason for the opposition's impotence lies in the nature of its votes: a significant portion of their electorate was mobilized through pre-election bribery. Citizens who have sold their votes for money will never take to the streets selflessly to defend the results, so the opposition's paper percentages don't translate into a real critical mass in the square," he said.

"It's only possible to claim that public sector workers were pressured to vote for the ruling party in the context of pre-election psychological pressure and threats of dismissal, but it's impossible to directly monitor their voting inside the booth. The voter takes a stack of ballots, seals one in an envelope in absolute confidentiality, and throws the rest away. The key here is that no one can figure out which ballot the voter placed in the envelope and which they threw away. In this regard, Armenia's electoral system itself has become so technically sophisticated in recent years that the old methods of total falsification within polling stations no longer work. Behind closed doors, public sector workers and ordinary citizens vote completely freely. And the public's passivity on the streets proves that the announced election results generally reflect the true balance of sentiment in the country," Abrahamyan concluded.

Oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan's Prosperous Armenia Party, former President Robert Kocharyan's Armenia bloc, and businessman Samvel Karapetyan's Strong Armenia bloc are the most pro-Russian participants in the Armenian parliamentary elections, analysts previously noted.

The parliamentary elections have effectively become a referendum on the future of the current government and Armenia's foreign policy. The "Caucasian Knot" published a report entitled "2026 Elections to the National Assembly (Parliament) of Armenia".