Pre-election ratings of Armenian parties

Eighteen parties have registered for the elections, but the real competition is only between four. According to ratings, the ruling Civil Contract party maintains its lead, but the overall rating of the opposition forces is higher.

Data from Gallup International Association

On June 5, 2026, the head of the Armenian office of Gallup International Association (represented by the Armenian office of MPG) Aram Navasardyan reported the results of a survey conducted on June 2-3 ¹.

According to the new data, the parties receive:

1. Civil Contract - 32.4%
2. Strong Armenia Bloc - 16.4%
3. Armenia Bloc - 15.2%
4. Prosperous Armenia – 8.8%
5. Wings of Unity – 6.2%

The remaining parties (including the Democracy, Law, and Discipline Party and Bright Armenia) are each gaining less than 3.5% of the vote.

According to Aram Navasardyan, the four opposition forces that cleared the threshold would collectively receive 46.6%, while the ruling party would receive 32.4%. Refused to answer - 4.2%, undecided - 3.4%.

Previously, according to polls conducted by the Gallup International Association from May 19 to 21, the main electoral indicators for the 2026 parliamentary elections were distributed as follows:

1. Civil Contract - 28.9%
2. Strong Armenia Bloc - 14.9%.
3. Armenia Bloc - 12.1%.
4. Prosperous Armenia - 8.7%.
5. Wings of Unity - 5.8%.

The remaining political forces (including the Democracy, Law, and Discipline party and Bright Armenia) are gaining less than 3.5%. votes.

8.6% of respondents refused to answer the question "which party do you trust," 3.4% were undecided, and 0.9% said they would spoil their ballot.

According to a May survey, 59.3% of citizens definitely intended to vote in the elections (versus 51.9% at the beginning of April), 14% of respondents "will most likely vote," 11.4% "will most likely not vote," and 8.3% "will definitely not vote." ².

Polit Pro Rating

According to PolitPro 1 As of June 5, 2026, the Civil Contract party leads the Armenian election ratings with 46% of the vote.

1. Strong Armenia – 13.3%,
2. Armenia Bloc – 9.1%,
3. DOK (Democracy, Law, Order) – 8.7%,
4. Prosperous Armenia – 7.6%.

The remaining parties collectively garner 15.3% of the vote.

The PolitPro electoral trend is a weighted average calculated using a mathematical model, taking into account statistical error and the reliability of sources. The algorithm incorporates data from research institutes and platforms, with newer polls given greater weight, and the historical accuracy of specific organizations used to compensate for methodological biases, the platform states.

According to PolitPro's forecast for June 5, 2026, five parties will enter the Armenian parliament: the Civil Contract with 55 deputies, Strong Armenia with 16 deputies, the Armenia Bloc with 11 deputies, the Democratic Party of Armenia with 10 deputies, and Prosperous Armenia with 9 deputies. ³.

Brevis Assessment

Based on Brevis polls for May 2026, commissioned by an international research organization that conducts representative public opinion polls in Armenia. 2 , the Civil Contract party leads in the pre-election rankings.

The study didn't ask respondents to make a choice, but rather to name "which political party or alliance they would vote for in the parliamentary elections on June 7, 2026." Of those surveyed, 51% did not name a party. Of these, 44% were "undecided" or "refused to answer," while another 7% said they "won't vote" or "would spoil the ballot."

Of those who named a specific party, they chose:

1. Civil Contract - 32%.
2. Strong Armenia - 6%,
3. Armenia Bloc - 3%.

Other parties, including Prosperous Armenia, Wings of Unity, DOK, and Against All, were named in 1-2% of cases.

The Euronews Case

The online platform Europe Elects, which publishes polling data for a European audience, has disseminated results according to which Civil Contract is allegedly gaining 65%. This figure made headlines in Armenian and international media, including Euronews. However, the sociological company Brevis stated that the data published by Euronews “does not reflect the results of the survey we conducted.” ⁴ Europe Elects later clarified that its publication had misinterpreted the graph by excluding respondents who were undecided, refused to answer, or did not intend to vote. ⁵ The incident was one example of inaccurate data and fake news spreading in Armenia amid the elections. Other cases are described in the "Caucasian Knot" report.

Notes

1. Poll: The combined rating of the main opposition forces is 14% higher than that of the ruling party // News.am, 05.06.2026.
2. https://www.panorama.am/en/news/2026/05/22/poll-elections/3159801
3. https://politpro.eu/ru/armeniya
4. The survey results published in the EuroNews article mentioning "Brevis" do not reflect the results of our research // www.aravot.am, 01.06.2026.
5. How 32% in Brevis turned into 65% — article on Euronews //Civilnet.am, 03.06.2026.