Activists assessed the influence of the diaspora on the election results in Armenia.

The main influx of Armenian citizens arriving from Russia to vote is expected in the final days before the elections, but the figure of 100,000 appears exaggerated. Those who agreed to come to vote do not necessarily support Pashinyan's opponents, although the diaspora's participation in the vote could significantly impact the distribution of seats in parliament.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot," military police at the airport are handing out summonses to Armenian citizens arriving from Russia to vote in the parliamentary elections. they are handing out summonses to participate in 25-day military training. The same applies to people arriving from other countries. The authorities have threatened criminal prosecution for those who refuse to participate. "On June 1, an investigation was published that shows how Moscow, with the help of pro-Russian blogger Mika Badalyan, is organizing flights for Russians with Armenian passports to Armenia on the eve of the elections. They even gave a precise date: June 4. They are buying tickets for anyone who wants them, meaning they are giving out free round-trip tickets. This is also interference in the elections, which is punishable under Armenian law," said political scientist Harutyun Mkrtchyan. The Anti-Corruption Committee suspects Badalyan of distributing election bribes.

Between May 1 and 17, 10,000 more Armenian citizens entered Armenia from Russia than during the same period last year, reported Daniel Ioannisyan, head of the Union of Informed Citizens.

"The National Security Service of Armenia provided us with this data in response to our request. It turns out that the number of people entering through the Meghri checkpoint on the border with Iran, including Armenian citizens, has significantly decreased. And the increase I'm referring to primarily relates to Zvartnots Airport and the Bagratashen border crossing. "That is, there is an increase in flows both by land and air," he told the "Caucasian Knot."

He predicts that the closer we get to the elections, the greater the number of Armenian citizens arriving from Russia.

"Obviously, there is no point in the main flow of voters planning to arrive months before the elections. The main flow will probably arrive in the final days," he noted.

According to his information, Russia, at the level of law enforcement agencies, is mobilizing Armenians eligible to vote in the parliamentary elections.

"Security officials are visiting them, telling them to participate in the elections, and giving them business cards of people who are responsible for purchasing tickets, and these are mainly representatives of the local Armenian diaspora and the church," he said.

A "Caucasian Knot" correspondent analyzed data from the website of Yerevan's Zvartnots Airport. There are 30 flights per day from Russia – from Moscow, St. Petersburg, Sochi, Mineralnye Vody, Chelyabinsk, Yekaterinburg, Krasnodar, and Samara. The average occupancy rate on planes is 150-180 people, meaning the number of passengers arriving from Russia to Armenia varies on average between 4,500-5,500 people per day. However, there is no data on how many Armenian citizens are among these passengers. As for the overland route, there is no publicly available data on the number of buses and minibuses arriving from Russia to Armenia. Economist Hayk Gevorgyan rules out the possibility that an additional 90,000 eligible Armenian citizens may have arrived in Armenia from Russia since May 17. "One hundred thousand people is a fairly large number, even for a power like Russia. Organizing the arrival of such a large number of people ahead of the elections is practically impossible. "According to my calculations, their number could reach 30,000, and that's the maximum. And I want to tell you that there is no guarantee that all of these 30,000 people will vote against Pashinyan. Many will simply take advantage of the opportunity to travel to their homeland at someone else's expense, have a good time, see their families, vote, among other things, for Pashinyan or another candidate, and then return to Russia," he told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent. According to him, there are no tools to monitor the voting process. "Photographing ballots is prohibited by law, and showing a ballot is also prohibited by law. Inside the polling station, every citizen is left alone with themselves and their choice. Moreover, we are forgetting about those Armenian citizens living in Russia who support the current government. Yes, the majority are against Pashinyan, but not all." "This is also important," he pointed out.

Arshak Makichyan, an Armenian activist who published correspondence with pro-Russian blogger Mika Badalyan, who is buying tickets for Russian Armenians, notes that it is not yet possible to estimate the exact number of Armenians who have returned to their homeland for the elections.

"Mika said that by the time the video was recorded, they had already sent thousands of people. But it's important to understand that exactly the same processes were taking place in many other Russian cities, especially in the southern regions, where many Armenians live. Therefore, no one knows the exact number. Under my video, which I shared, people also wrote en masse about similar cases in other cities. Moreover, many noted that those arriving were given cash directly in hand; I have indeed seen many such comments. I personally have not heard about organizing special buses, but in other cities it is quite possible; I just don't have direct contact with them. On the other hand, land routes are more difficult to conceal logistically, so as not to look suspicious. "I read that people are simply given cash. How exactly they then verify and confirm that the person actually traveled to Armenia and voted, I don't know. But, unfortunately, enormous funds have been allocated for this project, so anything is possible," he told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

Whether this will critically impact the election results is also a complex question, he says.

"It all depends on the number of people they manage to mobilize, but Russian propaganda has plenty of resources. Even if this doesn't work now, the threat will still remain. With such actions, they are effectively destabilizing the Armenian diaspora. In Armenia itself, the question of the extent to which the diaspora can and should influence domestic processes has been debated for a long time. Unfortunately, the current manipulations clearly demonstrate that such interference poses a real danger to Armenian democracy. I think this issue will remain acute in future elections, since Russia will not stop trying to influence events in Armenia," he noted.