Military experts have ruled out Georgia's role in the drone attack on Abkhazia.
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Russian military analysts believe Georgia is unlikely to have been involved in the drone attack on Abkhazia, and they also believe it is premature to talk about the weakness of Abkhaz air defenses. Abkhaz experts noted that the attack had no significant consequences.
As reported by the "Caucasian Knot," 30 drones were spotted over Abkhazia on March 4; they were shot down by Abkhaz and Russian air defense forces. Drone debris was found in 11 populated areas, and in one village this led to a power outage. Social media users demanded answers about the sources of the threat.
Commenting on the recent drone strike in Abkhazia, Captain First Rank Vasily Dandykin, expert of the Association of Military Political Scientists and head of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Andrei Koshkin, and member of the expert council of the public organization "Officers of Russia" and military political scientist Alexander Perendzhiev, interviewed by a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent, ruled out Georgian involvement and noted that it is too early to talk about the weakness of Abkhaz air defense systems.
According to Vasily Dandykin, Ukraine was behind the attack. "I can't imagine Georgia attacking Abkhazia with drones," he emphasized.
I believe it was inspired by those forces seeking to draw new states into the war between the US and Iran.
Andrey Koshkin linked the attack on Abkhazia with the US-Iran war. He noted that the drone strike on Abkhazia was one of a series of strikes on various countries (including Azerbaijan). "In recent years, a trend has emerged: as soon as drone wreckage is discovered, the media, often before appropriate investigations have been conducted, publishes information like 'this drone came from such and such,' which later turns out not to be true." "As for this incident, I believe it was inspired by forces seeking to draw new countries into a war between the US and Iran, as with the recent discovery of some drones in Nakhchivan," he said.
On March 5, four people were injured in a drone attack on the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The head of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry demanded an explanation from Iran, and a member of parliament called on the neighboring country to apologize for the drone attack. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev called the attack "a deliberate terrorist act by Iran," and the Azerbaijani army was put on alert.
Alexander Perendzhiev noted that the strikes were carried out from the sea, that is, not from Georgian territory. He also noted that it would have been illogical to launch a strike from Ukraine. "Abkhazia is not involved in the hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, and it's unlikely that Ukraine would want to see it become more involved," he noted.
Like Koshkin, Perendzhiev believed that a "third party" was behind the strikes – "the same one that was behind the attack on Nakhichevan."
An incursion by such drones is entirely possible.
As for the results of the raid as a symptom of the poor state of Abkhazia's air defenses, expert opinions are divided. Koshkin noted that drones are too small a target for traditional air defense. "The radar field cannot identify all flying objects 50 centimeters or larger as targets. Therefore, an incursion by such drones is entirely possible," he noted. Perendzhiev also noted that the incursion by some drones does not indicate a weak air defense. "We have strong air defense in Russia, but recently, 102 houses were damaged by drones in Novorossiysk. So, I wouldn't say our air defenses are weak," he emphasized.
On the evening of March 1 and the night of March 2, a drone attack in Novorossiysk injured seven people and damaged dozens of residential buildings: eight apartment buildings and nine private houses.
Dandykin believes the Abkhazians were simply unprepared for the attack. "And for air defense, there needs to be someone to man the guns or missiles," he stated.
Secretary of the Abkhazian Security Council, Raul Lolua, and an anonymous expert, who has been studying Abkhazia for many years, also commented on the drone attack to a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.
Raul Lolua reported that no serious facilities were damaged. "There were no losses or destruction," he noted.
An anonymous expert noted that there were no casualties as a result of the attack. "No serious facilities were hit, only a substation in one of the villages, that's all," he noted. The expert also noted that the drone attack was used in domestic political infighting. "The opposition is outraged: where is the air defense? "But really, no one was expecting it," he concluded.
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Translated automatically via Google translate from https://www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/421396