A traffic accident in Grozny has raised questions about Ramzan Kadyrov's possible successor.

Ramzan Kadyrov would like to see his third son, Adam, as his successor, but in reality, neither Adam nor the other sons of the Chechen leader have received guarantees from the Kremlin allowing them to claim power in the republic.

As reported by the "Caucasian Knot," the motorcade of Ramzan Kadyrov's third son was involved in a traffic accident in Grozny. Adam Kadyrov and his entourage were injured, sources claim. Against this backdrop, on January 16, official media published a denial of the death of UFC champion Khamzat Chimaev in a traffic accident. For six days, Chechen authorities neither confirmed nor denied reports of an accident involving Adam Kadyrov, nor has there been any official information about his condition. Amid discussion of the traffic accident involving him in Grozny, Adam Kadyrov posted a story on his Instagram* account featuring a monologue from the series "Game of Thrones" and music by Chechen bard Timur Mutsuraev. However, there are still no new videos of Adam Kadyrov, nor is there any up-to-date information about his condition and whereabouts.

Possible political consequences of the Chechen authorities' hushed-up car accident involving Adam Kadyrov, who was named as Ramzan Kadyrov's preferred candidate for his successor, were commented on to the "Caucasian Knot" by political scientist Sergei Boyko, a member of the Adam Smith Center Council 1 , blogger Islam Belokiev, and Svetlana Gannushkina, chair of the Civic Assistance Committee*.

Although Ramzan Kadyrov promoted Adam as his more likely successor, appointments within the republic do not affect the real political future of the third son of the head of Chechnya, like his brothers, Sergei Boyko noted.

"There is a theory that this son was chosen by Kadyrov as his successor because he was able to devote more time to him than to his other children. However, the federal center gave Ramzan no guarantees that power would fall to Adam. Therefore, a specific position—whether it be Security Council Secretary, like Adam Kadyrov, or Deputy Prime Minister, like Akhmat Kadyrov—confers no advantage on any potential successor. In any case, the final say will rest with Putin," Boyko stated.

According to the political scientist, neither the accident in Grozny nor other scandals affect Adam Kadyrov's chances of gaining real power. "For Kadyrov, these are all elements of the culture of a horseman and military prowess. For the federal center, it seems to me, the very idea of ​​hereditary power is not very acceptable. At one time, when Akhmat Kadyrov was removed, they relied on Ramzan to maintain control over the Chechen security forces, but now there is no such need. Nevertheless, Ramzan is trying to pressure the federal center," Boyko explained.

Talk about Ramzan Kadyrov's successor, be it Adam Kadyrov, his older brother Akhmat, or someone else, is largely speculative, Islam Belokiev is confident.

"In reality, the question of who will govern Chechnya is decided not by Kadyrov himself or the republic's elite, but exclusively by the Kremlin. The Russian system of power is structured in such a way that it is the federal center that appoints and dismisses regional leaders, and any elections in Chechnya are purely decorative and sham. The claimed 97% support is a sham, designed to create the illusion of legitimacy and 'special status' for the republic," he explained.

At the same time, Belokiev fully shares the opinion that Ramzan Kadyrov would like to build a dynasty and transfer power to his sons, among whom Adam is his favorite. "However, neither Adam nor Akhmat are independent political figures today. They lack the apparatus, the power base, the political agency, or, to put it bluntly, the brains. Their potential future in power depends entirely on Moscow's decision," Belokiev pointed out.

Without a direct decision from the Kremlin, neither of Ramzan Kadyrov's sons will become the head of Chechnya.

Adam Kadyrov's statement about "delivering Zelensky" to Grozny and the subsequent accident, during which he lost control of the car, do not damage his image because he has no political image as such, the analyst emphasized. "The very discussion of his reputation already gives him an unjustified status. His public antics are an element of family PR, not a factor in real politics," Belokiev noted.

A far more telling figure in the context of talk about Ramzan Kadyrov's successor, in his opinion, is Magomed Daudov, who, according to Belokiev, has sharply increased his security "to an unprecedented scale."

“This is an indirect signal that the Kremlin views him as a key candidate for the role of the next head of Chechnya. This decision could not have been made without Moscow’s approval. It is Daudov who de facto controls the apparatus and internal system of power in the republic today. At the same time, it is possible that they are trying to reassure Ramzan Kadyrov by explaining that even if Daudov does become the next head of Chechnya, it will only be temporarily, as a kind of regent. The logic is this: he must preserve the system and govern the republic until Kadyrov’s sons grow up and become formally acceptable candidates. Whether this will be the case, and whether Daudov will suppress all the “princes,” is an entirely different matter. Formally, Putin will have the final say, but in practice, he is guided by the recommendations of the security forces and the FSB, which oversee the region on the ground. Apparently, it was they who placed their bets on Daudov as the most controllable figure and one integrated into the system. In this sense, talk about "The 'Kadyrov dynasty' remains a political myth. Without a direct decision from the Kremlin, none of Ramzan Kadyrov's sons will become the head of Chechnya," Islam Belokiev concluded.

No incidents involving Adam Kadyrov will affect his father's desire to see him succeed him, noted human rights activist Svetlana Gannushkina*.

"Ramzan Kadyrov needs to ensure the position and security of his family in the future. And he's right: anyone outside their family, assuming leadership in Chechnya, won't be able to ensure their safety, even if they really wanted to. They've done too much there and caused grief to many," she stated.

"Complex processes" with the selection of a successor

The security of Ramzan Kadyrov's family is one of the main factors in choosing his future successor, along with the "stability of the republic" required by the federal center. At the same time, the current situation is “extremely difficult” for the Kremlin, as “very complex processes are taking place” in the republic, an investigative media project claims, citing sources close to the federal government.

Adam Kadyrov cannot be considered a possible leader of Chechnya until he turns 30. The publication’s sources, including a former FSB officer and a representative of the Chechen diaspora, indicate that the republic will be headed by “a man loyal to Kadyrov” from the Benoi teip, to which his closest associates Adam Delimkhanov and Magomed Daudov belong. According to the sources, a conflict has arisen between them due to competition for influence. Apti Alaudinov, who was also mentioned in the context of choosing Kadyrov’s successor, is considered by sources to have “dropped out” of the candidates for this role due to his insufficient authority in the republic.

A source close to the Kremlin noted that “for now "Kadyrov is alive, nothing will happen," although analysts point out that even if Ramzan Kadyrov dies, there will be no major changes to the republic's governance system. Another source for the publication noted that "Moscow has its own candidates for the post of head of the region, but they are not public figures."

On January 22, Anzor Maskhadov, son of the second president of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, expressed the opinion that Magomed Daudov, Adam Delimkhanov, and Apti Alaudinov are all vying to succeed Ramzan Kadyrov. "I'm sure all of these people want this power, but it seems to me that they are most likely grooming Daudov," he said in an interview with the BBC Russian Service. He also noted that although "the military is promoting Alaudinov," the commander of the Akhmat special forces lacks sufficient authority to govern the republic.

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** The activities of Meta (owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp) are banned in Russia.