Analysts have pointed to the consequences of protests in Iran as risks for official Baku.

The Azerbaijani authorities are interested in weakening the regime in Tehran, but they fear the spread of mass protests to Azerbaijan. At the same time, the situation of Iranian Azerbaijanis will not significantly improve, whether the regime in Tehran remains in place or changes.

It should be noted that protests in Iran have been ongoing since December 28, 2025, and began due to dissatisfaction with the country's economic situation. It is currently difficult to determine the exact number of people injured or killed during the protests, as internet and mobile communications have been shut down throughout the country, according to RBK.

The World Congress of Azerbaijanis (WCA) condemned the violent suppression of protests in Iran, expressing concern for the fate of ethnic Azerbaijanis in the country. At the same time, the WCA condemned "propaganda" in Iran aimed at restoring the Pahlavi monarchy. In a statement today, the WCA advocated for solutions to these problems, including ensuring the ethnic rights of Azerbaijanis within the framework of the country's current Constitution.

"We hope that human rights, democracy, freedom of speech, the right to speak one's national language, the right to education, and the right to freedom of the press will be recognized in Iran, that Article 15 of the Iranian Constitution will finally come into force, and that Azerbaijani Turks and other peoples living in Iran will also be able to exercise their national and cultural rights," Sabir Rustamkhanli, chairman of the Azerbaijan Civil Solidarity Party and head of the Azerbaijan Civil Solidarity Party, told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

According to Baku-based analyst Tofig Turkel, events in Iran are generating heightened interest in Azerbaijan.

"Azerbaijanis are one of the largest ethnic groups in Iran, numbering between 25 and 40 million, according to various sources. However, despite this, the ethnic and cultural rights of Azerbaijanis are infringed. They are unable to study in their native language and lack not only national but also cultural autonomy. From this perspective, the Tehran regime's policies run counter to the interests of Azerbaijanis in that country. However, Azerbaijanis were also disadvantaged under the Shah's regime. Therefore, the prospect of a revival of the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran is causing concern among Iranian Azerbaijanis. Everyone remembers how Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the father of Prince Reza Pahlavi, who aspires to political leadership in Iran, bloodily destroyed the Azerbaijani Republic and its government, which was declared in Iran in 1945-1946," Turkel noted.

Another Baku political scientist noted the Azerbaijani authorities' wary attitude toward events in Iran.

 "The Azerbaijani authorities are closely monitoring events in Iran and have not yet responded to them. For Baku, the weakening of the theocratic regime, whose representatives periodically make threats against Baku, is important. On the other hand, a revolutionary change of power in a neighboring country could become a role model for those within Azerbaijan who disagree with government policy. Furthermore, destabilization in Iran and the escalation of protests into a civil war could put Azerbaijan in a difficult position, requiring it to respond to and support ethnic Azerbaijanis. "The restoration of the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran could change the geopolitical landscape in the region and create competition for Azerbaijan's energy and transportation projects," an analyst who did not wish to publish his name told a Caucasian Knot correspondent.