The theory about the Dagestani schoolboy's connections to ISIS* has been called into question.

Relatives of a schoolboy from the village of Khuchni, arrested on suspicion of ties to terrorists, believe he was the victim of a provocation. The investigation's version of events is questionable and requires objective confirmation, analysts agreed.

As reported by the "Caucasian Knot," on October 19, it was reported that an underage 11th-grade student in the Dagestani village of Khuchni was arrested on suspicion of participating in the activities of the Islamic State*. He faces 10 to 20 years in prison. According to security officials, the teenager communicated with a member of a terrorist organization via TikTok and was detained while attempting to "take a gun" to attack security officials.

The detained 16-year-old was not a problem child, Islam Magomedov, a resident of the village of Khuchni and an acquaintance of the family, told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent. "He played sports, participated in competitions, was a model student, and did well in school. No one will ever believe that a 16-year-old boy wanted to become a terrorist. It's some kind of misunderstanding. "Everyone's on TikTok these days, communicating with a lot of people, and anyone can start a conversation with the wrong person," he said.

He may have been the victim of some kind of provocation. That's the family's main theory.

According to him, the teenager's family still can't believe what's happening. "If he were from a troubled family, growing up without a father, with no one to look after him, then it's conceivable he was naturally prone to this kind of behavior. But their family is exemplary, ordinary, very ordinary in that sense. And the family doesn't believe he wanted to harm anyone. He may have been the victim of some kind of provocation. That's the family's main theory," the man said. The arrested man's family declined to comment to the "Caucasian Knot."

The chances of house arrest are minimal

House arrest is extremely rarely used in terrorism cases, even for minors, noted lawyer Yevgeny Smirnov, who is not involved in the case.

"The courts proceed from the high public danger of such crimes and the risk of continued criminal activity or escape. Nevertheless, there are examples. In practice, there have been cases of house arrest of minors during the preliminary investigation stage, when the charges were based on correspondence without any actual action. But if there is an attempt to obtain a weapon to attack security forces, this is already preparation for a terrorist attack, and the chances of house arrest are minimal. Positive characterization and "The parents' willingness to supervise their child will be taken into account, but it's unlikely to outweigh the severity of the charges," he told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

If the parents' version of provocation is confirmed, this could serve as a mitigating circumstance, but not grounds for acquittal, Smirnov added. "The defense must prove that the teenager was lured into the crime through deception, did not understand the consequences, and acted under psychological pressure. If the investigation establishes that the recruitment took place through TikTok using manipulations typical for recruiting minors, this could reduce the sentence. It could be 5-7 years in prison," he noted.

It's possible that the teenager's detention was a planned operation by security forces, said Interior Ministry Colonel and PhD candidate Amir Kolov. "Initially, this information about a teenager being charged with criminal liability for allegedly communicating with an ISIS* member not only raises doubts but also suggests a deliberate criminal provocation by security forces [...] with the aim of intimidating the indigenous people of Dagestan," he told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

The extent of the public danger posed by the teenager's actions is unknown.

Even if the teenager communicated with an ISIS* member, this does not constitute a crime, he emphasized. "The most that could be allowed for law enforcement officials to take preventative measures against someone who has established contact with an ISIS* member would be to conduct educational talks, recruit, and use that person to identify, prevent, and solve crimes. Secondly, the extent of the public danger posed by the actions of the teenager from Dagestan is unknown. And whether he committed or intended to commit any socially dangerous act is unknown," Kolov noted. According to him, the main danger posed by ISIS* activities in Russia was the increase in protest sentiment among "the ordinary population against the current government." "That is, by pitting the people against the state through actions that incite fear, horror, and hatred among people. Currently, the need for such terrorist forces, particularly in Dagestan, has disappeared, as officials in Dagestan, especially law enforcement agencies, and in other regions of Russia, are working to a greater extent to foster such protest sentiments among the people toward the state. The increasing number of cases of prosecution of teenagers on terrorism charges, including in Dagestan, are, in my opinion, part of this anti-people, criminally ordered policy of Russia's enemies who have infiltrated Russia's state authorities," the Interior Ministry colonel said.

Criminal cases brought under terrorism-related charges, especially when online recruitment is involved, raise doubts in Dagestani society, said a Dagestani journalist who asked not to be named.

"After all, there are some among the security forces who use illegal methods to demonstrate good performance, who are willing to plant weapons and drugs, and provoke crimes for the sake of their careers." "In this case, when we know that there are Ukrainian IPOCs provoking Russians to commit crimes, or telephone scammers pushing impressionable people to various acts, then why is the theory that this teenager was subjected to operational provocation being denied?" he told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

Teenagers are increasingly being prosecuted under terrorism charges: they are young and clueless.

In his opinion, given that current Russian legislation is very vague in its definitions of extremism and terrorism, anyone can be charged. "This, in principle, explains why teenagers are increasingly being prosecuted under terrorism charges: they're young, clueless, unable to listen to adults' explanations about social media comments, and unaware of how and what to comment on given today's realities," the journalist noted.

There may be cells of terrorist organizations in Dagestan, but they're unlikely to be active, he noted. "As for ISIS*, I admit the existence of sleeper cells, but at the same time, I understand that such cells are extremely rare in the republic: they're dormant because they're deeply undercover and clearly don't communicate via TikTok. They don't display any activity that could be observed by outsiders." "I believe that in such cases, security forces should present the public with as much objective evidence as possible to exonerate them from any suspicion," he emphasized.

As a reminder, in March 2025, a counterterrorism operation was declared in the Makhachkala village of Semender. In a shootout, security forces killed four residents of Dagestan, and the National Anti-Terrorism Committee declared the dead to be ISIS militants*. This version has raised doubts among veterans of the security forces.

"I very much doubt that these are some young men who support ISIS*. I just don't believe it. We destroyed them all, according to the Minister of Internal Affairs. But then they suddenly appeared again. This happens when someone really needs it. Perhaps for ratings, perhaps to show some results. Enormous amounts of money are being allocated to the fight against terrorism and extremism. And I think this money is just itching to be spent," Magomed Shamilov, chairman of the independent trade union of employees of the internal affairs and prosecutor's office, told the "Caucasian Knot" at the time.

* A terrorist organization banned in Russia.

** Meta (owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp) is banned in Russia.