Baku analysts assess consequences of CSTO troops entering Kazakhstan

Analysts from Baku believe that the deployment of the Collective Security Treaty Organization troops to Kazakhstan will aggravate the political crisis in the country and strengthen the anti-Russian sentiments and the desire of society to withdraw from the CIS institutions.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the chair of the Collective Security Council of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), has granted the request of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of Kazakhstan, to bring the CSTO’s peacekeeping forces into the country. The contingent included units of the armed forces of Armenia, as well as Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

According to political analyst Khagani Djafarli, the introduction of the CSTO troops into Kazakhstan will only aggravate the crisis in the country.

The political analyst believes that “Russia preserves its presence in the post-Soviet space due to authoritarian leaders.” “Therefore, the overthrow of the authoritarian regime in Kazakhstan after Ukraine would be a disaster for Russia. The introduction of Russian troops may have a temporary effect on the regime in Kazakhstan. Russia is unable to prevent the post-Soviet republics from fighting for freedom,” the expert believes.

Anar Mamedli, a graduate of the Maxwell School at Syracuse University in the United States, suggests that the invitation of peacekeepers only intensified the protests, as it angered the population.

The expert believes that after the invitation of external forces, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will not hold out for long in power because of his behaviour. “The Tokayev’s future has been called into question because of the fact that the population is angered with the interference of Russia,” noted Anar Mamedli.

Mekhman Aliev, the director of the “Turan” agency, considers the introduction of the CSTO troops into Kazakhstan illegal. “The introduction of CSTO troops will only exacerbate the political crisis and in the long term it may lead to increased sentiment in Kazakhstan for the country’s withdrawal from the CIS, EAEU, and CSTO,” Mekhman Aliev believes.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on January 7, 2022 at 02:05 pm MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.