Yerevan military experts assess threat of Azerbaijani-Turkish joint exercises

The Yerevan military experts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" did not rule out provocations during the joint exercises of the armed forces of Azerbaijan and Turkey, but they doubt the reality of the latter's involvement in the conflict.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that on July 12, the conflict intensified on the border in the Tovuz District of Azerbaijan and the Tavush Region of Armenia. According to the official information, in the period from July 12 to 27, six soldiers were killed from the Armenian side, while the Azerbaijani authorities reported 13 killed people. No new casualties have been reported since July 27.

Today, a relatively calm situation is observed on the Azerbaijani-Karabakh border; but this does not mean that the level of tension has done down, Vlad Vartanyan, a military expert of the "Orbeli" Analytical Centre, told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent. In his opinion, there is every reason to believe that Baku will "again resort to provocation" in the near future.

The expert has also assessed the joint exercises of the armed forces of Azerbaijan and Turkey, which are being held, including in Nakhichevan.

According to Vartanyan, the exercises are of pre-planned nature; and Turkey's involvement in the confrontation with Armenia is unlikely. "Provocations are not ruled out, but so far they are taking place only in the information sphere," he said.

In the opinion of David Djamalyan, a former adviser to the Armenian Minister of Defence, Turkey is purposefully emphasizing its military presence in Nakhichevan; there are even talks about the deployment of a military base there. Mr Djamalyan called this not only a threat to Armenia, but also a direct threat to national interests of Russia and Iran.

"Both Armenia and Russia are very closely following what is happening in Nakhichevan. Turks are well aware of this and understand that any transformations of military exercises against Armenia will entail very painful consequences," Mr Djamalyan believes.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on August 5, 2020 at 04:20 am MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.