Political analysts point to risks of influence on Georgia of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict

The escalation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict may result in economic losses for Georgia and an influx of refugees, the political analysts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" believe.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that the situation on the border of the Tovuz District of Azerbaijan and the Tavush Region of Armenia escalated on July 12. According to the Investigating Committee of Armenia, from July 12 to 16, four Armenian servicemen were killed, and 39 people were wounded, including 36 soldiers, two policemen and a civilian. By July 16, the Azerbaijani side reported 13 killed persons (including 12 soldiers and a civilian) and four wounded soldiers. From 17 to 22 July, there were no reports of new casualties or victims. On July 23, the Armenian MoD announced the death of a soldier wounded on July 14, and the death toll on the Armenian side reached five persons.

If the conflict develops further, it will negatively affect Georgia, says Dmitry Avaliani, the editor of the "JAMnews". "The Georgian-Azerbaijani relations have already passed through several crisis moments. <...> Even if this [conflict aggravation] was in Nagorno-Karabakh, it would be uncomfortable for Georgia. And here, it happens forty kilometres from our border. Besides, in Moscow, there were already clashes of Azerbaijanis with Armenians; and we have two large Diasporas living compactly in Georgia. And refugees may come from there," Mr Avaliani has stated.

The aggravation of the conflict on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border has already had a negative impact on Georgia, said Yegor Kuroptev, the regional representative of the "Free Russia" Foundation (the organization is on the list of undesirable ones in Russia) in the Caucasus. "Firstly, the economic security of the region has suffered, since economic entities were in line of sight for the artillery. Yes, they were not under threat, but when Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia are in a hot stage, even at the level of rhetoric, it's already dangerous. And the main point is that large communities live here," Mr Kuroptev has summed up.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on July 25, 2020 at 08:43 pm MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.