Baku analysts note risk of resumed warfare with Armenia

Despite the relative stabilization of the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani troops contact line, the conflict of the two countries has not been settled, which may lead to new large-scale clashes, the experts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" believe.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that the situation on the border of the Tovuz District of Azerbaijan and the Tavush Region of Armenia escalated on July 12. The Azerbaijani side announced the death of 11 of its soldiers and one civilian, and wounding of four soldiers. Given the four killed and 20 wounded people on the Armenian side, the count of victims since the start of the aggravation on the border made 40 killed and wounded people.

The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict remains unsettled, and there is no way talking about the end of its acute phase judging by individual local clashes, said Azad Isazade, a military expert and a former employee of the information-analytical department of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence (MoD).

"No one will undertake to predict when and in what direction the next action will take place. The conflict remains in its hot phase; it's not frozen; there are everyday skirmishes; at any moment, in any place, it can turn into large-scale clashes and combat operations," Mr Isazade has explained to the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

Given the absence of the negotiation process, new outbreaks of Azerbaijani-Armenian military exacerbation are inevitable, Telman Abilov, the head of the NGO "Military Lawyers", is sure.

"Now, we see some vacuum in the negotiation process. The OSCE Minsk Group, I think, has exhausted itself; and a new format is needed. Until a new platform for negotiations is created, the risks of resumption of hostilities will be great, and this can happen in any direction," Mr Abilov told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on July 22, 2020 at 01:41 am MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.