Analysts rule out threat to Georgia from USA-Iran confrontation

There will be no USA-Iran combat actions; therefore, neither a flow of migrants, nor the activeness of Shiite groupings threaten Georgia, the analysts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" believe.

A USA-Iran military clash is unlikely, said Mamuka Areshidze, an expert on the Caucasus and the head of the NGO "Centre for Caucasian Studies".

"I don't think that there will be anything serious. If someone wants to deal with Iran, he must arrange an internal mess there. Any external aggression against Iran hardly makes sense," Mr Areshidze told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent on January 12.

He also considers doubtful that refugees will flow into Georgia in the event of a political confrontation in Iran or even in case of a civil war there. According to his version, many Azerbaijanis live in Iran, and Azerbaijan or Turkey are preferable for them in this case; and Armenia is more acceptable for Armenians, who are about 100,000 in Iran.

Political analyst, Gela Vasadze, has a similar opinion.

"There will be no lengthy military actions between Iran and the United States. The configuration is such that the States can win a military victory over Iran, but then what to do with this very victory is decidedly incomprehensible. The USA has the resources to change the regime in Iran, but to ensure a government loyal to the USA in such a country, there's no resource," Mr Vasadze told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on January 13, 2020 at 01:29 am MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.