Nalchik attack 'due to N Caucasus destabilisation'

"The main cause of the attack is the ongoing, drawn-out regional geopolitical conflict. Sometimes it takes a more obvious course, and sometimes it is more covert. It is obvious that parallels can be drawn here with the attack on Ingushetia in summer last year," Victor Avksentiev, Professor at the Stavropol State University and a well-known political scientist, told Caucasian Knot's correspondent earlier today. "There are many other regions in the world that are similar to the North Caucasus in this country, and events there follow nearly the same pattern as developments in Russian. These are the Middle East, the border area between India and Pakistan, and North Ireland — lull there also turns into periods of escalation of violence and terrorism."

Mr Avksentiev believes that gunmen consciously stage "major" terrorist acts and attacks, in order to draw attention to them in conditions of stabilisation of the situation in the North Caucasus. "The situation has been much more peaceful in Chechnya's neighbouring regions since early 2000, it has stabilised, after all," the expert says. "And the series of terrorist acts that began in the spring of 2004, shocking, major terrorist acts, confirms that extraordinary actions were necessary to blow up the situation. It could not have been destabilised by some methods that would not be as defiant."

"In Nazran, Beslan, and Nalchik, we see implementation of a strategy of terrorist and paramilitary activities aimed at extending it to as vast a territory of the North Caucasus as possible. The goal is to destabilise the situation throughout the entire region after its relative stabilisation," emphasises Mr Avksentiev.

The scientist is not inclined to see a direct connection between a recent fight between local students with those who had come to study in Nalchik from Chechnya and today's attack by rebels. However, "both events manifest the general unfavourable trend in the region, although I see no direct causal effect here," thinks Mr Avksentiev.

"Terror is becoming one of the main instruments in modern political struggle worldwide, and Russia will not be able to avoid this problem. And no comforting results can be expected here! The question is to work to prevent such tragedies," Mr Avksentiev believes.