Analysts report goals and motives of attack in Grozny

Incitement of a conflict between Muslims and Orthodox believers could hardly be a goal of an attack on a church in Grozny, but the attack can be regarded as a symbolic challenge to the Russian presence in Chechnya, believes Ekaterina Sokiryanskaya, the director at the Conflict Analysis and Prevention Centre.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that on May 19, when militants tried to capture Orthodox believers in the Church of Archangel Michael in Grozny, seven persons were killed and two others were wounded. Responsibility for the attempted capture of believers in the Grozny Church was claimed by the Caucasian unit of the terrorist organization "Islamic State" (IS) banned in Russia by court's decision.

According to Ekaterina Sokiryanskaya, by its symbolic meaning, the above attack can be put on a par with the shelling of believers of the Orthodox Church in Kizlyar. "This is a symbolic challenge to the Russia's power, the Russian presence in Chechnya, and not an attempt to launch some social processes in the society," Ekaterina Sokiryanskaya believes.

She draws attention to the fact that the attack in Grozny fits into the new system of the IS* methods, formed after the defeat of IS* militants in Syria and Iraq.

"Supporters of the IS* have moved to the tactics of actions committed by 'lone wolves' or members of small groupings or units, who use improvised tools, including knives, axes, and trucks, to attack civilians," said the rights defender.

For organizers of the attack, the time of the act was important, since it occurred during Ramadan and on the eve of the FIFA World Cup, Ekaterina Sokiryanskaya noted.

Journalist Orkhan Djemal suggests it is possible that the attack on the church was motivated by an emotional surge and not a plan of a terror act.

Meanwhile, the journalist has also noted that there is too little information about the attackers and the attack itself to confidently talk about their motives and goals.

"Theoretically, we can assume that the attack was committed by the IS*, since there is also no information refuting such a hypothesis. I believe such actions are not similar to the activities of the 'Imarat Kavkaz'*, since they did not have any idea of attacking churches. The Sharia law imposes clear limits for possibility of attacks on churches or monasteries. So, it still remains unclear what those people wanted to achieve," the journalist noted.

*Terrorist organization banned in Russia by the court

Full text of the article is available on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’.