Experts doubt possibility of a "velvet" revolution in Armenia

In its declaration to other opposition forces, the opposition "Heritage" Party has claimed that there are preconditions for a "velvet" change of power in Armenia. Experts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" expressed their scepticism about such a prospect. Political analysts believe that the opposition can unite only in matters of national security.

According to the declaration adopted on June 25, the growth of migration and the economic crisis may lead not only to a loss of statehood, but also to a new war.

"The Serzh Sargsyan's decision to stay at his position of the Prime Minister may lead to the street struggle," claimed Raffi Ovannisyan, the leader of the "Heritage" Party.

He did not rule out the possibility of street struggle after the expiration of the presidential term in April 2018.

"A 'velvet' revolution is a complex political project, which requires a number of factors absent in Armenia now," said political technologist Armen Badalyan.

He has noted that "a 'colour' revolution requires an external customer and financing, like it was in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine." Besides, the revolution should have a clear geopolitical focus.

Political analyst Ruben Megrabyan, an expert from the Armenian Centre for Political and International Studies, has called the Raffi Ovannisyan's statement a populist.

Aram Manukyan, the former deputy of the opposition faction "Armenian National Congress" (ANC), believes that the opposition may unite around the threats faced by Armenia. However, according to him, for such a union, political forces should offer pragmatic steps to eliminate the above threats.

Full text of the article is available on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’.