Northern Caucasus: militants become much more effective on background of growing violence in Chechnya

In 2016, Northern Caucasus faced the noticeable intensification of armed clashes, and effectiveness of militant activities a number of losses of law enforcers in per every killed militant increased more than two times in comparison with 2015. The above trend persisted in early 2017, primarily because of the recent aggravation of the situation in Chechnya. The growth of violence in Northern Caucasus can be explained by the failures in the activities of the National Guardia of Russia created in 2016 and the return of militants from Syria.

If in 2015, the ratio of losses of law enforcers to losses of militants turned out to be at the level of 1 to 3.5 (i.e., in average, militants lost 35 people for every ten killed and wounded law enforcers), then in 2016, the ratio was 1 to 1.7 (i.e., for every 10 losses of law enforcers, militants lost 17 fighters).

The above trend is evidenced by the information about the number of victims to the armed conflict in Chechnya, Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria, and Ingushetia.

In Northern Caucasus, the largest increase (in percentage) in the number of victims was shown by Chechnya. In 2016, at least 43 people were injured in the republic. Of them, at least 27 people were killed and 16 others injured. In comparison with 2015, the total number of victims then it was 30 increased by 43 percent.

In 2016, the "Islamic State" (IS) claimed responsibility for attacks on law enforcers in Northern Caucasus at least six times.

In recent years, the "Imarat Kavkaz" which became a rival of the IS significantly reduced its activity. Therefore, the recent major attack, for which that organization banned in Russia claimed responsibility, occurred in December 2014.

Full text of the article is available on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot'.