Experts: IS benefits from economic crisis in Northern Caucasus

The aggravation of socio-economic situation in Russia, and further departure of elites away from ordinary people in Northern Caucasus create fertile soil for strengthening the position of the "Islamic State" (IS), recognized as a terrorist organization, the experts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" believe.

Earlier Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the Russia's Federal Security Bureau (FSB), said that during 2015 power agents have liquidated 20 out of 26 leaders of militant groupings in Northern Caucasus, who had sworn to the IS. However, according to observers, the most influential leaders of the IS in Russia are alive.

According Alexei Malashenko, a member of the Scientific Council of the Moscow Carnegie Centre, there may be three further scenarios of the armed conflict in Northern Caucasus.

"Firstly, if the situation changes for the worse for Russia, the number of members and leaders of the IS will increase, which will lead to escalation of the conflict and, as a result, losses among power agents and civilians. The second scenario envisages no major changes in the short term. The third one assumes improvement of the situation, when IS fighters will be killed or "squeezed" out of the territory of Russia," he said.

The expert himself believes that the developments will follow "between the first and second scenarios."

If the IS collapses, its members will be "unemployed"; and some of them may move to Russia, the expert has suggested.

The more economic problems in Russia and Northern Caucasus in particular, the more trump cards in the hands of IS recruiters, Gadjimurad Sagitov, the editor-in-chief of the Dagestani edition "Novoye Delo", expresses his opinion.

Full text of the article is available on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’.