Experts treat situation in Northern Caucasus as dangerous and predict escalation of conflict

Reduction in the number of victims of the North-Caucasian conflict was caused by the outflow of militants to other warfare zones; this trend will change after the return of combatants from Syria, the rights defenders and experts questioned by the "Caucasian Knot" believe.

"Simple systematic calculations show that the activity of the underground in the region is stepping down," Alexander Cherkasov, the Chairman of the Board of the Human Rights Centre (HRC) "Memorial", said in his comment to the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent. "In 2013, it was lower than in 2012; and in 2014, the activity was lower than in 2013. Why is that? We see here a result of the tough system in Dagestan and Chechnya, and, on the other hand, the application of the method of soft power in Ingushetia, the region that has become the most peaceful in Northern Caucasus."

However, another overlapping process is taking place here, which, in his opinion, had an impact on the situation in the republics, namely, an outflow of "hundreds of militants from Northern Caucasus to Syria." "This means that the improvement in the situation is temporary. Those who left may return equipped with new experience and ideological attitudes," said Alexander Cherkasov.

Besides, in his opinion, the situation in the Caucasus will be affected by the oath taken to the "Islamic State" by a number of field commanders in Dagestan and Chechnya. "If the influence of the ideology of the 'Islamic State' indeed becomes stronger in Northern Caucasus, it will be very dangerous and will become another proof that the rejection of peaceful dialogue with Islamists and an attempt to solve everything only by force are counterproductive and only worsen the situation," said Alexander Cherkasov.

One of the key reasons for reducing the number of victims of the armed conflict in the region was a very active work of power agents on the eve of and after the Olympics in Sochi, which "was achieved almost exclusively by force," said Varvara Pakhomenko, a researcher of the International Crisis Group.

In her opinion, the method of force looks very effective, but is unable to bring lasting peace, as it leads to antagonism of the population and the authorities and the growth of radicalization.

Full text of the article is available on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’.