Underground in North Caucasus commits point attacks, Emil Panin asserts

One of the possible reasons for decrease in the number of casualties of the conflict in North Caucasus was the change in the tactics of the armed underground. Militants quitted organizing terror acts in crowded places and started committing point attacks on representatives of law enforcement agencies and authorities. This was stated by political analyst Emil Panin.

"Reports on armed hostilities composed by the 'Caucasian Knot' show that, to a considerable extent, decrease in the number of casualties can be explained by change of strategy and tactics used by militants. Instead of preparing large-scale terror acts in public places, which usually caused deaths of civilians, the militants have focused on point destruction of their main enemies representatives of law enforcement agencies and authorities," said Emil Panin in his interview to the "Caucasian Knot".

He has reminded that the change in tactics was announced by Dokku Umarov, the leader of the armed underground of North Caucasus, in early 2012.

"It appears that his tactics has been taken into consideration. The nature of the change is understandable it gives to militants much greater political advantage than earlier operations in crowded places. And the population's indignation of those terror acts has sharply decreased, since the number of civilian casualties decreased," the political analyst has noted.

Besides, the very frequency of the armed underground's attacks has increased, Emil Panin reminds. "It is obvious from your data. And it creates the public impression that the armed opposition forces has started the attack," the political analyst said.

He has emphasized that in North Caucasus, the very fact of increase in the frequency of terror acts, even with decrease in the number of victims, is a good reason for the continued growth of criticism of law enforcement agencies.

For several years, Dagestan occupies the first place among the republics of North Caucasus on the number of victims of the conflict. According to Emil Panin's version, the republic is also the absolute leader in the number of terror acts.

Emil Panin believes that all those data cannot be explained by any single reason. "Here (in Dagestan, note of the "Caucasian Knot"), the level of religious fundamentalism has always been higher than in any other part. Here, as we know, the level of ethnic diversity is the highest one. Here, all kinds of conflicts, including territorial ones, have been historically accumulated. Here, the authorities cannot provide mobilization at least for a while, like it can be done in ethnically homogeneous republics," the political analyst has noted.

Emil Panin has also questioned the accuracy of the official information on decrease in the number of victims of the conflict in Chechnya.

"I have some doubts about the reliability of the information for that republic. If the data are taken from the media, obviously controlled by the local authorities, then, there is a distortion associated with apparent understatement of the number of victims," the political analyst has stressed. He has also noted that the sociological studies conducted in Chechnya also demonstrate "intentional distortion of the data toward embellishment of the situation."