Mkrtchyan: Preliminary census data in North-Caucasian republics raise serious doubts

The census data for the republics of Northern Caucasus, announced by the "Rosstat" (Russian Federal Statistics Agency), raise serious doubts. The "Caucasian Knot" correspondent was told about it by Nikita Mkrtchyan, a leading researcher at the Institute of Demography of the Supreme School of Economics, in his comment on the preliminary census data.

Let us remind you that according to the 2010 census, as compared with the previous one - in 2002, the population of the North-Caucasian Federal District (NCFD) went up to 9.49 million people, or by 6.3 percent, with an overall population decline in Russia during this period by 1.6 percent (by 2.2 million). In Chechnya and Dagestan, the population growth made 15 percent and 15.6 percent - the highest figures among all Russian regions. Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria are the only regions of the NCFD, where the population decrease was registered.

According to Nikita Mkrtchyan, the results of the 2002 census for Northern Caucasus were also a surprise for experts. For example, the fact that after the first war Chechnya showed growth; and its population made 1,100,000 citizens.

"The essential growth in Dagestan and Chechnya, as compared with the decrease in Ingushetia, most likely, indicates the honesty of Ingush officials and census-takers. Against the growth in the neighbouring republics, the data on Ingushetia looks realistic. They have given up the practice of write-ups, which was probably used at the previous census. Ingushetia has departed from the practice of 'double counting'," Mr Mkrtchyan told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

"We see the process of migration to the Stavropol Territory and other regions of Russia; and it should have been somehow reflected in the data on Northern Caucasus," said Nikita Mkrtchyan. He believes that the data on Chechnya is surprising and difficult to explain, because it contradicts to the well-known facts and processes, such as an almost complete exodus of Russian-speaking population, the presence of Chechen refugees, and irreversible losses due to the war, counter-terrorist operations and terror acts.

"No doubt, the census results have their practical, financial and political implications through increased subsidies, funds on social programmes, benefits, etc. According to experts, after the census Dagestan may receive additional 3 billion roubles," Mr Mkrtchyan told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

"The majority of Chechen refugees have returned home from Ingushetia," Ruslan Badalov, head of the public organization named the "Chechen Committee for National Salvation", who is living in Ingushetia, told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent. "Out of 280,000 Chechen refugees initially registered in Ingushetia, around 20,000 still remain here."

He has noted that according to the census, the birth rate in Ingushetia is 4 times the death rate and has surpassed the fixed outflow by almost 51,000 people. Nevertheless, by population loss Ingushetia is Russia's second after the Magadan Region.

"We don't see any mass outflow to other Russian regions or abroad, even temporarily, on a rotational basis; same as any reduction of the population. On the contrary, the population grows; there are many children in families. Polygamy is also encountered here, although not so widespread as in Chechnya," Ruslan Badalov has added.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that the head of Ingushetia Yunus-Bek Evkurov said at a press conference on April 1 in Moscow that he did not agree with the results of the 2010 census. In his opinion, the population of the republic would have grown up to 600,000 people, not decreased by 11.6 percent. He believes that "republic's agencies had mixed up something."