Relapse of 2005 events in Nalchik in the same form impossible, experts say

The simultaneous attack on several power objects in Nalchik on February 25 reminded the attack on the city undertaken on October 13, 2005. But politicians and observers believe that any repetition of the events that took place six years ago is now impossible; they treat the new attack to be a demonstrative action. Besides, it is believed that militants could make this attack deliberately, in order to distract the attention of law enforcers from the places where the counterterrorist operation (CTO) regime was declared.

Let us remind you that on February 25 an almost simultaneous shelling was undertaken of the building of the Department of the FSB in Nalchik, of Sanatorium "Leningrad" and two GIBDD (same as STSI - State Traffic Safety Inspectorate) "Shalushka" and "Khasanya" from the side of Gerpegezh.

"It was a response to introduction of the CTO regime in the Elbrus and part of the Baksan Districts. Militants wanted to state that they were not going to give up, and would not be frightened by any reinforcements," one of local observers believes.

The CTO regime introduction was preceded by assassination on February 18 of three tourists from Moscow, on February 19 - of the head of the Khasanya village administration, diversion at the ropeway and an attempt to blow up a car near a hotel in the Elbrus region.

Other analysts believe that the militants' attacks had to do with the special operation in the Elbrus District on February 22, when a group of militants opened a gunfight with special troop fighters. Then, six soldiers were wounded, one was lost, but the militants managed to escape. Considerable forces were sent to search them.

Militants could take the attacks to distract the law enforcement forces; this opinion, among other versions, by President of Kabardino-Balkaria Arsen Kanokov.

However, it should be noted that the special operation near the village of Bylym, Elbrus District, was almost over by the time of the attack on Nalchik.

The militants' action as such, according to official sources, was undertaken by four groups, 12 militants in total, who attacked four objects almost simultaneously. Analysts see here similarities with the events of October 13, 2005. Then, the attack on the facilities of power structures also occurred at the same time - within a gap of several minutes. However, the similarity ends. On October 13, 2005, the attackers were in no hurry to retract: the shooting continued for two hours or more, and in two cases - for day and night. Hence - a large number of casualties among the attackers - 92.

One of the eyewitnesses of the attack on the post "Shalushka" told that the gunmen drove to the post, shouted three times "Allah Akbar!" and opened automatic fire; then, they left.

"Now, a relapse of the events of October 13, 2005, is unlikely. Then, the attackers were guided by religious ideology. What is happening now is a war of economic interests of various groupings, who don't need Kanokov's power. Fighters for ideas cannot ignore the interests of ordinary people, which we often observe in actions of the underground. In particular, we can present the murder of the tourists as an example: it resulted in a collapse of the tourist business in the Elbrus area and deprived more than 80 percent of the population of the district of a piece of bread," said a local analyst.

Valery Khatazhukov, Head of the Human Rights Centre of the Republic, also believes that the repetition of the events on October 13, 2005, is impossible. "I do not think that they have enough resources for this. The militants did not even come into a gunfight; it all happened within five minutes," he told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

He was partially supported by Murat Khokonov, a member of the Public Chamber and Professor of the KBSU (Kabardino-Balkarian State University). "The repetition of those events in the same way is impossible. Militants have become better prepared," said the scientist.

In the opinion of Anzor Shakhmurzov, head of the regional branch of the Party "Pravoye Delo" (True Cause), the situation in the republic is as tense as on the eve of October 13, 2005. "The law enforcement system cannot cope. It looks like some kind of impunity, which moves the underground to desperate acts," he said.