Activation of Chechen underground may lead to new violence outbreak in the country, observers say

The attack on the building of the Chechen Parliament in Grozny on October 19 and the militants' attack committed in the end of August this year on Tsentoroi - the family village of the Chechen President - indicate serious changes in tactics and strategy of the Chechen underground, some local experts believe. In their opinion, activation of the underground may lead to a new outbreak of violence in the country.

A source from the Chechen MIA said, referring to operative data, that the attack on the Parliament of Chechnya was organized by Hussein Gakaev, who had recently defiantly quitted subordination to Dokku Umarov, while, according to Kadyrov, the attack on Tsentoroi was organized by field commander Aslambek Vadalov.

"It is absolutely clear today that the leaders of Chechen militants who broke away from "Imarat Kavkaz" will intensify their actions. It will not only be demonstration of their power, but also an opportunity to declare them as a new component of the Chechen conflict," a local analyst told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

He notes that until recently, before the split among separatist, the armed underground in Chechnya did not carry any resonant actions, and now use the tactic of waiting. "In contrast to Dagestan and Ingushetia, Chechnya, indeed, looked like an island of stability in Northern Caucasus; while Ramzan Kadyrov was regarded as a person who vanquished separatism and terrorism. I do not rule out that there were some unspoken arrangements between the Chechen leader and separatists on the situation in the republic, a sort of mutual neutrality," said the source.

Another expert agreed with him: "Today, there's no need for militants to undertake broad-scale operations, like it was during the first military campaign or before 2004 - attacks on cities and towns by big groups of separatists. The 'pointwise' and 'targeted' actions, like the attacks on Tsentoroi and the Parliament, can bring no less resonant results than any broad-scale actions. Besides, they don't require much effort and resources, which is also quite important for the militants," the source believes.

According to his story, if militants' activity goes on growing, the President of Chechnya will inevitably have to explain it to the Kremlin. "Besides, we should not forget that not everybody in Moscow treat Kadyrov as the only person capable to manage Chechnya," said the expert.

According to Alexei Malashenko, a Russian orientalist and a member of the Scientific Board of the Moscow Carnegie Centre, the attacks on the Parliament of Chechnya on October 19 and on the Kadyrov's family village of Tsentoroi on August 29 are creating preconditions for increasing the presence of federal militaries in the republic; however, they will not cause restoration of the counterterrorist operations (CTO) regime in the whole republic and dismissal of Ramzan Kadyrov from the post of Chechen leader.