Moscow will fail to have Zakaev extradited from Poland, experts believe

On October 26, the Court of Appeal will sit in Warsaw to consider the case of provisional arrest of Ahmed Zakaev, said the court spokesperson Barbara Trembska.

The situation around Zakaev was commented on by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. According to his story, his country will make decision on Zakaev based on its own interests and not in line with "someone else's" expectations. He added that his country is pursuing "independent policy on Chechnya and Zakaev."

The "Caucasian Knot" correspondent asked Musa Muradov, a political observer of the "Kommersant" newspaper, to comment on the situation around Zakaev.

"What happened in Poland was already the third Russia's attempt to get Zakaev," said Muradov. "The first one was in Denmark, where Zakaev came to the World Chechen Congress. Two months later, Zakaev was arrested at London's Heathrow Airport - again at Moscow's request. Three hearings followed, and in November 2003 the London court ruled to reject Russia's claim on extradition of Ahmed Zakaev. The case was closed. Now here's the story repeated in Poland. It seems that this Moscow's attempt to extradite Zakaev to Russia will also fail."

According to the journalist, it happens because Zakaev is one of those who are still voicing out the idea of separatism. "If he repented, renounced the idea of independence of Ichkeria, then, there would be no claims against him; like many other Ichkerian figures he would return to his homeland. Although what happened in Poland was nothing but additional PR promotion for Ahmed Zakaev, but nothing for Russia or the West," said Musa Muradov.

When asked whether the split in the separatists' camp could affect Zakaev's authority, Muradov said that it was unlikely. He is confident that what happened between Dokku Umarov and field commanders was to Zakaev's benefit: "Ahmed adheres to the idea of Chechnya's independence, while Dokku Umarov had proclaimed a new state formation - Imarat Kavkaz' - and appointed himself to be Amir of Caucasian mujahads and the leader of the Jihad. Zakaev believes that this split will help militants to give up the idea of the global Jihad, which he does not welcome."

Musa Muradov also said that Zakaev has no connections with any field commander in Chechnya.

According to political analyst Zayndi Choltaev, the reason of the increased pressure on the head of Ichkeria is in his political activity, which Ahmed Zakaev demonstrated by arriving at the World Congress of the Chechen People.

According to Choltaev, "it's wrong to think" that the Chechen Diaspora in Europe supports the idea of separatism and finds Zakaev as its leader. "Sure, there are such persons as well. But mostly, they are far from politics. The main problem for them is to get used to the new environment, find work and educate children. Zakaev have nothing to offer them, but the idea of separatism, which, as he hopes, will unite people around him," said Zayndi Choltaev.

He also sticks to the opinion that Zakaev's position is "absolutely lossless". "And the prospect is if not eternal by surely long-playing: always to demand something, and no matter that there are no results. The main thing is to be in public by using any options. Naturally, for the West Zakaev is a more understandable figure, a dialogue may be held with him. The same opinion was in the leadership of the Chechen Republic, when Zakaev met Dukvakha Abdurakhmanov, speaker of Chechen parliament. Yes, these negotiations have given no tangible results yet, but I think everything possible should be done to resume Zakaev's peace dialogue with the authorities of Chechnya," said the political analyst, in whose opinion "perhaps, it will make militants to think about it," and they, as a result, may support the peace initiatives.