Russian experts: Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's accession to Russia is hardly probable

In the opinion of leading Russian political scientists, accession of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Russia is the least probable scenario of developments.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that the leaders of South Ossetia had announced their intention to join the union state of Russia and Belarus. Earlier, President of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity did not exclude that South Ossetia would once enter the Russian Federation. However, later Mr Kokoity said that South Ossetia would like to build a union state with Russia, but had no plans to become a part of Russia.

In the opinion of Alexei Vlasov, director general of the Information and Analytical Centre for studying political processes in the post-Soviet space, the variant of Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's accession to Russia is the least probable scenario, since "it would break the diplomatic balance, which has set up in relations between Russia and the West in the issue of former non-recognized states."

Dmitri Oreshkin, head of the "Merkator" Analytical Group, has agreed on the point with Mr Vlasov and believes that the probability of Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's accession to Russia is very small: "Joining this country is an extreme case, which will be very scandalous. This process has much more contras than pros."

In the political scientist's opinion, first of all the political elites of the breakaway republics are against this form of integration: "Abkhazia thinks as Russia's ally, but not as an entirely dependent formation." In his forecast, most likely, it will pursue a multi-vector policy, at least not hundred percent pro-Russian one."

"Abkhazia has its more or less reasonable political class - as demonstrated at the latest elections, - capable to run its independent existence," said Mr Oreshkin.

Alexei Makarkin, Vice-President of the Centre of Political Technologies, sticks to different opinion about the position of South Ossetia. He believes that accession to Russia is one of the main goals of this republic. Although, in his opinion, at present this goal is unattainable.

"The present status of an independent state will be maintained, but with orientation, in case of favourable circumstances, towards entering Russia and possible merge with North Ossetia," said Mr Makarkin.

According to his version, any today's integration of these republics into Russia will be perceived by the world community as annexation of their territories.

Alexei Vlasov believes that "in the near future, within 12-18 months, mainly Russia's trade and economic, military-political, socio-cultural, and broadly speaking - humanitarian - interaction with these republics will develop. According to his story, this interaction will be more intense with Abkhazia than with South Ossetia, as Russia has bilateral interests with the former. As to Tskhinvali, Moscow "will play the donor's role."