The Armenia-EU summit gave Pashinyan an advantage ahead of the parliamentary elections.

The Armenia-EU summit addressed only general issues and did not touch on topics important to Yerevan, particularly Karabakh refugees and prisoners of war. Nevertheless, it clearly demonstrated that the current government is taking real steps toward the country's European integration, which could be important for voters in the parliamentary elections, according to Russian and Armenian analysts.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot," the eighth summit of the European Political Community was held in Yerevan on May 4, with the participation of approximately 50 delegations at the level of heads of state and institutions. Concurrently, on May 4 and 5, the first Armenia-EU summit was held in the Armenian capital, with the European Union represented by European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Armenian and Karabakh public organizations and parties called on the European Union representatives who arrived in Yerevan to help preserve cultural values ​​in Karabakh and protect the rights of refugees. The first Armenia-EU summit, which concluded in Yerevan, gave Armenian opposition political forces a reason to accuse Nikol Pashinyan of pre-election manipulation, and Moscow media - of "betrayal" and an anti-Russian course.

Armenian political scientist and former member of parliament Mikael Zolyan, senior researcher at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Geographical Sciences Alexey Gunya, economist and political scientist Sergey Zhavoronkov, political scientist Levon Shirinyan, political analyst and specialist in the post-Soviet space Kirill Krivosheev*, at the request of the "Caucasian Knot", analyzed the results of the European Political Community summit and the Armenia-EU summit, which took place in Yerevan.

A number of issues important to Armenia were left unaddressed during the discussions

The European Political Community summit held in Yerevan The ENP was an unprecedented event in terms of the number of foreign leaders attending and an important milestone in Armenia's relations with Europe, according to Mikael Zolyan.

"It was a kind of presentation of Armenia as a European country with its own historical path and geopolitical characteristics. The main effect of the event was symbolic: Yerevan managed to integrate into the media image of Europe, which is broader than just the European Union. It is also important that organizational issues were resolved effectively, contrary to existing stereotypes," he told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

According to the expert, in addition to the symbolism, specific practical issues were also discussed on the sidelines of the summit.

"The discussion focused on visa liberalization, security assistance to the armed forces, and countering hybrid threats." These issues had been raised previously, but now they received maximum attention," Zolyan explained.

The focus was on relations between Yerevan and Europe, not confrontation with Baku or Ankara.

Despite the fact that the issues of prisoners of war and refugees were actively discussed in the media and raised by journalists, they did not occupy a central position on the official summit agenda.

"Armenia deliberately did not focus on the Karabakh conflict, conveying a message of a desire for peace. The focus was on relations between Yerevan and Europe, not confrontation with Baku or Ankara. "Nevertheless, work to return the prisoners is likely continuing behind the scenes, although the realistic chances of a quick breakthrough are slim," the political scientist noted.

The recent European Political Community summit in Yerevan led to an even clearer division in Armenian society between supporters of Western and Russian development vectors, believes Alexey Gunya.

"The most important outcome for Armenia is that a step has been taken toward a deeper fragmentation of society. "This is a firm and clear statement of the choice between the Western path and the Russian direction, which in itself is a key consequence of the meeting," he told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

The issues of Karabakh, refugees, and the return of prisoners of war were effectively relegated to the background.

According to the expert, the most pressing issues for the region, concerning security and resources, remained unresolved despite the apparent success of the event.

"The issues of Karabakh, refugees, and the return of prisoners of war were effectively relegated to the background. Regarding the economy, the discussions were limited. Discussions on opening borders and transport corridors remain, for now, merely a declaration of possible economic freedom. "At the same time, strategically important topics—energy and the use of mineral resources—were not touched upon at all," Gunya noted.

Despite Yerevan receiving certain political preferences amid Baku's cooling relations with Europe, their practical benefit to the population remains questionable.

"It's difficult to expect the current political bonuses to be transformed into tangible assistance in the near future: large grants, tranches, or investments. Amid the political euphoria, I doubt these processes will lead to a real increase in the country's development or an increase in the well-being of Armenian residents," the scientist emphasized.

Sergey Zhavoronkov also noted a lack of practical solutions in the economic sphere.

"No specifics were provided regarding economic cooperation or the introduction of a visa-free regime." On the one hand, the EU is awaiting the election results, but on the other, this can be considered a failure of the Armenian authorities, who failed to demonstrate to voters real, albeit small, achievements in these areas,” Zhavoronkov believes.

Yerevan is emerging from the shadow of Russian influence and positioning itself as an independent player oriented toward the West.

The EU summit in Yerevan is already a major victory for Yerevan, Levon Shirinyan is confident.

“This is a symbolic and geopolitical signal: Europe recognizes Armenia as an important partner, ready to move toward European values ​​and standards. The most important thing for Armenia is not specific financial packages or agreements, although they will also be implemented, but a change in the country’s international status. Yerevan is emerging from the shadow of Russian influence and positioning itself as an independent player oriented toward the West. This opens long-term prospects for economic integration, attracting investment, and modernizing institutions. "Furthermore, the presence of European leaders in Yerevan is an indirect guarantee of security," he told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

According to Kirill Krivosheev*, the final declaration of the summit lacks specifics and consists of "classic generalities."

The expert notes that pressing issues such as the fate of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh and the return of prisoners of war were deliberately kept off the agenda in order to avoid a harsh reaction from Azerbaijan.

"Both the Europeans and the Armenian side understood that focusing on the topic of refugees or prisoners of war would infuriate Baku. No one wanted that. As a result, "displaced persons from Karabakh" is mentioned only in Ursula von der Leyen's speech, but it is not mentioned in the declaration itself. It is assumed that the financial plan (The Resilience and Growth Plan for 270 million euros) closes this topic. This seems logical within the framework of "current diplomacy," the analyst explained.

According to Krivosheev*, the final declaration of the summit lacks specifics and consists of "classic generalities."

The expert notes that sensitive issues, such as the fate of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh and the return of prisoners of war, were deliberately kept off the agenda to avoid a harsh reaction from Azerbaijan.

"Both the Europeans and the Armenian side understood that focusing on the topic of refugees or prisoners of war would infuriate Baku. No one wanted that. As a result, 'displaced persons from Karabakh' are mentioned only in Ursula von der Leyen's speech, but not in the declaration itself. It is assumed that the financial plan (The Resilience and Growth Plan for 270 million euros) closes this topic. This seems logical within the framework of current diplomacy," the analyst explained.

The rapprochement between Yerevan and the EU does not pose a threat Baku

19:14 04.05.2026

Analysts assess the consequences of Baku's severing ties with the European Parliament

The severing of the Milli Majlis's cooperation with the European Parliament, which was largely symbolic, will not lead to economic losses for Azerbaijan due to the EU's interest in energy and transport partnerships. However, Baku may suffer political and image costs, and Brussels will lose the opportunity to demand compliance with European human rights standards, Baku analysts noted.

Zolyan believes that strengthening Yerevan's ties with the EU does not pose a direct threat to the interests Azerbaijan, and Baku's criticism of European structures is selective.

"Baku's relations with the European Parliament and the Council of Europe have deteriorated due to democracy issues, but the Azerbaijani leadership is quite satisfied with its role as a trade and economic partner of the EU. Since Yerevan declares that rapprochement with Europe is not directed against its neighbor, Baku does not react too sharply to this. For Armenia, the European vector is a way to balance Russian influence and strengthen its negotiating position in the region," Zolyan pointed out.

Sergey Zhavoronkov called for not overestimating the scale of the crisis in relations between Azerbaijan and Europe.

"These relations have never been warm, but Brussels will not sever them, given Azerbaijan's role as an energy supplier. Accordingly, the European Union has no goal of taking any steps against Armenia solely to spite Baku," he noted.

Krivosheev* also expressed skepticism about the idea that Yerevan's rapprochement with the EU gives Armenia an advantage amid cooling relations between Baku and European structures. According to him, Azerbaijan's situational scandals with the European Parliament do not affect the strategic partnership based on energy supplies.

"The real relationship between Baku and Brussels is the purchase of gas, which continues," he pointed out.

The summit could become Pashinyan's trump card in the election campaign.

The success of the summit will be a significant electoral asset for the current government and Nikol Pashinyan personally.

"It's hard to disagree that eight years ago, a visit by so many leaders, including from the Baltic states and the UK, would have been impossible. For the pro-Russian opposition, which opposes rapprochement with the EU, this summit was a major blow. In my opinion, this event could add 5% to 10% to the ruling party's ratings." "The European path is no longer a pipe dream and is perceived by the population as a real alternative, providing the country with a sense of security and psychological support," Zolyan emphasized.

Yerevan's rapprochement with the EU cannot be attributed solely to election tactics, as it reflects the country's leadership's real strategy.

"This isn't just election rhetoric, although elements of that are present. What's happening clearly defines the Armenian leader's foreign policy views, which have already become a consistent trend." "As a result, relations between Russia and Armenia continue to steadily worsen," Gunya concluded.

The preservation of the current government, despite all its shortcomings, is perceived as a guarantee of maintaining the rule of law in the country and preventing a transition to a Russian-style authoritarian model.

The main outcome of the European Political Community summit was the public demonstration of support for Nikol Pashinyan by European leaders ahead of the parliamentary elections, according to Sergey Zhavoronkov.

"The idea of ​​European integration is extremely popular in Armenia, and Western leaders are taking this into account. "The preservation of the current government, despite all its shortcomings, is perceived as a guarantee of maintaining the rule of law in the country and preventing a transition to a Russian-style authoritarian model," he told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

The current government is using the summit as a powerful campaign asset, Shirinyan believes.

"Pashinyan and his team can show voters the concrete results of their pro-Western policy, not abstract promises, but a real global event that occurred thanks to their diplomatic efforts." The opposition criticizes this as a PR stunt, but the fact remains that no previous Armenian government has been able to achieve such a level of trust and attention from Europe,” he noted.

13:33 May 7, 2026

Pashinyan cites election campaign as reason for refusing to attend Moscow parade

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that he will not attend the Victory Day Parade in Moscow because he will be campaigning for the parliamentary elections. The statement came amid dissatisfaction with Armenia's actions, voiced by Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.

Shirinyan believes that the European path and the prospect of joining the EU are extremely significant for the results of the parliamentary elections.

"Young people, IT specialists, entrepreneurs, and the educated urban middle class see concrete benefits in European integration: visa-free travel, access to the European labor market and education, investment, economic modernization, and the fight against corruption in line with European standards. For them, the choice between Pashinyan's pro-Western course and the pro-Russian opposition is a choice between the future and the past. The opposition is trying to play on nostalgia for a "strong Armenia" allied with Russia, but reality shows: Russia did not protect us in Karabakh, did not help us regain our territories, and is only dragging us back into authoritarianism and isolation." The European path offers hope that Armenia can become a successful, democratic, and prosperous country, like the Baltic states after leaving the Soviet orbit. Of course, there are skeptics, especially among the older generation and in rural areas, who fear losing ties with Russia and disbelieve in European promises," he emphasized.

Samvel Karapetyan's "Strong Armenia," along with Robert Kocharyan's "Armenia" bloc and Gagik Tsarukyan's "Prosperous Armenia" party, is one of the most pro-Russian parties in the Armenian parliamentary elections. The Kremlin is backing Karapetyan, but Armenian political scientists have previously noted that he is legally ineligible to participate in the elections. The "Caucasian Knot" has prepared a report "2026 Elections to the National Assembly (Parliament) of Armenia".

The summit held in Yerevan with the participation of European leaders was primarily an image-building exercise, and its real impact on key regional issues remains limited, according to political analyst and post-Soviet specialist Kirill Krivosheev*.

"I think this event was largely an image-building exercise. The European Union as an institution and individual European leaders expressed support for Nikol Pashinyan, and he received it. Now the Armenian authorities will focus on the elections - nothing more important will happen in the country before June 7," he told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

Russia reacted sharply to Armenia's steps towards Europe

The summit provoked a painful reaction in Russia, which traditionally perceives any manifestation of Armenia's subjectivity as a threat to its influence, Zolyan believes.

"Russia is not accustomed to seeing Armenia as an independent player. The arrival of leaders such as Keir Starmer or Volodymyr Zelenskyy provokes a sharp reaction, increased propaganda, and, possibly, symbolic sanctions against Armenian businesses. However, it will not lead to a complete breakdown in relations. Moscow will most likely adopt a wait-and-see attitude until the completion of the parliamentary elections in the republic," Zolyan predicted.

The main threat to Armenian-Russian According to Zhavoronkov, the problem with these relations stems from the Kremlin's rejection of the democratic development path of post-Soviet countries.

"Armenia has already been 'punished' for the 2018 regime change with de facto betrayal in Karabakh, where Russian peacekeepers failed to fulfill their obligations. Now Moscow is openly playing on the side of the Armenian opposition, using economic leverage," the expert explained. According to him, Russia is threatening to block agricultural supplies from Armenia.

At the same time, Zhavoronkov added that Yerevan retains its own instruments of influence.

"If embargo threats become practical, Armenia may raise the issue of withdrawing Russian military bases. Although their actual military significance is minor, their preservation has sacred meaning for the Russian leadership, and their loss would be perceived extremely painfully," Zhavoronkov concluded.

Format of Moscow's future relations and Yerevan will only be determined after the parliamentary elections in Armenia.

Pashinyan's actions are undoubtedly irritating Moscow, Krivosheev* emphasized. "However, the format of future relations between Moscow and Yerevan will only be determined after the parliamentary elections in Armenia. At the same time, the issue of the country's accession to the EU is not a real factor—no one believes in such a prospect right now," he concluded.