Analysts rule out threat to Russian-Abkhaz relations from Valery Bganba's ultimatum

A sharp statement voiced by the acting President of Abkhazia, who demanded from the Russian authorities to justify the Russian media's reports about the poisoning of Aslan Bzhaniya, was addressed to the Abkhaz electorate on the eve of the presidential election and would not entail any deterioration in the Russian-Abkhaz relations. This opinion was voiced by analysts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot".

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that on March 4, Valery Bganba, the acting President of Abkhazia, demanded from Alexei Dvinyanin, Russian Ambassador to Abkhazia, to submit the information on the basis of which the Russian media reported new poisoning of Aslan Bzhaniya. If no information is submitted, and the General Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation does not institute a case on poisoning, that will be regarded as an "unfriendly act" in relation to Abkhazia, and the republic's authorities reserve the right "to protect sovereignty and citizens," threatens Valery Bganba.

The reports of the Russian media about the possible poisoning of Aslan Bzhaniya provoked such a reaction of Valery Bganba, since they negatively affected the domestic political situation in Abkhazia, believes Vadim Mukhanov, Senior Researcher at the Centre for Caucasus Studies and Regional Security at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (known as MGIMO).

"First of all, the statement is intended for the internal audience and is aimed to calm the situation in the country. The Russian side is not an addressee of the statement, and it cannot affect the bilateral relations [of Russia and Abkhazia]," Vadim Mukhanov said. The expert suggests that "no action addressed to Russia will follow" from the Abkhazian side.

A similar opinion was expressed by Alexander Skakov, the coordinator of the working group at the Centre for the Central Asia and Caucasus Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). "The reports of the Russian media about the poisoning of Aslan Bzhaniya again agitated the population of Abkhazia. The situation is tense again, and the acting President nervously reacted to the media's reports that provoked agitation," Alexander Skakov told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

Alexander Skakov also believes that the threat of Valery Bganba will not be followed by any real actions against Russia.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on March 5, 2020 at 05:22 pm MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.