Near-border village in Nagorno-Karabakh. Photo by Alvard Grigoryan for the Caucasian Knot

26 June 2019, 11:22

Baku and Yerevan political analysts link some calmness in Karabakh conflict zone with talks

After a meeting of officials of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs (MFAs) of Armenia and Azerbaijan, the shelling on the troops contact line has almost stopped. The parties agreed on mutual concessions, but if the process of peace negotiations is stalled, the conflict may escalate again, the political analysts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" believe.

The "lull" established recently on the troops contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh and on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border may be associated with a restart of the peace process after the Washington meeting of the heads of the two MFAs, Togrul Djuvarly, a member of the Azerbaijani National Public Committee for European Integration, has suggested.

The quietness may last for several weeks or even months, Mr Djuvarly believes.

"However, if the discussion process of the political settlement is stalled again, then a new escalation and even resumption of local military actions are very likely, which in the end can lead to a full-scale war," he has concluded.

In the opinion of Agasi Enokyan, a political analyst and a former head of the Armenian service of Radio Liberty, the lull in the Karabakh conflict zone, has to do with the negotiation process.

After the meeting in Washington, Elmar Mamedyarov, the head of the Azerbaijani MFA, said that the issues of withdrawal of Armenian troops from Nagorno-Karabakh and the deployment of peacekeeping forces were raised at the meeting, the "Turan" News Agency reported on June 24.

"It is stated for the first time that we discussed such a specific issue," Mr Enokyan has stated. At the same time, he has noted that "it's very difficult to predict possible scenarios for the development of the situation."

The minister did not rule out a new escalation of military operations in the future.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on June 26, 2019 at 05:03 am MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.

Author: Faik Medzhid, Armine Martirosyan; Source: CK correspondents

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